Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun Super League prediction & result
Final score: Hangzhou Greentown 6-0 Yunnan Yukun.
Before kick-off the model made it 25% Hangzhou Greentown, 21% draw, 54% Yunnan Yukun — fair odds of 4.00, 4.76 and 1.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Yunnan Yukun at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33Zhao BoG
- 25Xu JunchiD
- 5Liu HaofanD
- 36L. PossignoloD
- 26Sun GuowenD
- 22Cheng JinM
- 4Park Jin-SeobM
- 7Tao QianglongM
- 10M. TolicM
- 28A. MitritaM
- 11Y. WangF
- 1Dong ChunyuG
- 32Huo ShenpingG
- 3Wang YangD
- 17Wang ShiqinD
- 38A. ZhangD
- 8A. N'DoumbouM
- 29Zhang JiaqiM
- 14Wu WeiM
- 6Bao ShengxinM
- 1Bao YaxiongG
- 26Zhang ChenliangD
- 18Yi TengD
- 33A. BurcaD
- 3Tsui Wang-KitD
- 10A. Ionita IIM
- 8Xu XinM
- 7Ye ChuguiM
- 39Abdusalam BunyaminF
- 30J. Saeter
- 11O. Taty MarituF
- 23Wang ZhifengG
- 24Yu JianxianG
- 5Shi KeD
- 27Han ZilongM
- 2Hu RuibaoD
- 16Zhang XiangshuoD
- 6Zhao YuhaoM
- 17Sun XuelongM
- 22Duan LiuyuM
Form going into Hangzhou Greentown vs Yunnan Yukun
Hangzhou Greentown
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Sichuan Jiuniu22 August 2026
- L2-3Chengdu Better City15 August 2026
- W4-1Wuhan Three Towns8 August 2026
Yunnan Yukun
All competitions we cover
- D3-3away to Beijing Guoan22 August 2026
- W3-1Dalian Zhixing15 August 2026
- W1-0Chengdu Better City8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
China Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Hangzhou Greentown | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 55 | 54 | +1 | 37 |
| 6 | Yunnan Yukun | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 59 | 61 | -2 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Hangzhou Greentown and Yunnan Yukun
Hangzhou Greentown
GoalsAssists
- A. Mitriță1315
Yunnan Yukun
GoalsAssists
- O. Maritu239
- Cléber145
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hangzhou Greentown beat Yunnan Yukun 6–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Yunnan Yukun at 54% and given a win for Hangzhou Greentown 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: M. Tolic 2' for Hangzhou Greentown, A. Mitrita 4' for Hangzhou Greentown, A. Mitrita 29' for Hangzhou Greentown, A. Mitrita (penalty) 39' for Hangzhou Greentown, Park Jin-Seob 45' for Hangzhou Greentown, Tao Qianglong 46' for Hangzhou Greentown. On expected goals it finished 3.34–1.27.