13 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Heart of Midlothian vs Benfica UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Heart of Midlothian 1-1 Benfica.

Before kick-off the model made it 10% Heart of Midlothian, 13% draw, 77% Benfica — fair odds of 10.00, 7.69 and 1.30. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-3.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Benfica at 77% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Heart of Midlothian3%Draw88%Benfica9%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

C. Braga
34'
46'
🔁C. Lengletout: T. Araujo
•C. Miller
54'
🔁T. Renaudout: T. Magnusson
64'
64'
🔁E. Barrenecheaout: L. Barreiro
64'
🔁G. Sudakovout: G. Prestianni
🔁S. Guendouzout: S. Kerjota
75'
🔁C. Millerout: J. Wilson
75'
🔁C. Bragaout: P. Kabore
76'
⚽T. Magnusson
77'
78'
⚽D. Lukebakioassist: J. Neto
79'
🔁D. Lukebakioout: J. Kaminski
79'
🔁A. Schjelderupout: Rafa Silva
🔁O. McEnteeout: M. Kamara
84'

Line-ups

Heart of Midlothian
  • 1B. Reus
  • 23J. Altena
  • 6O. McEntee
  • 17S. Findlay
  • 5J. McCart
  • 16B. Spittal
  • 12T. Renaud
  • 7C. Miller
  • 19S. Guendouz
  • 15J. McPake
  • 10C. Braga
Substitutes
  • 30R. Fulton
  • 39M. Gillies
  • 24M. Kamara
  • 22T. Magnusson
  • 29S. Kerjota
  • 11P. Kabore
  • 77A. Ba-Sy
  • 21J. Wilson
Coach: Wouter Vrancken
Benfica
  • 24S. Soares
  • 17A. Dedic
  • 16Manu
  • 2C. Lenglet
  • 62J. Neto
  • 20R. Rios
  • 5E. Barrenechea
  • 11D. Lukebakio
  • 10G. Sudakov
  • 21A. Schjelderup
  • 22J. Duran
Substitutes
  • 1A. Trubin
  • 58D. Banjaqui
  • 6A. Bah
  • 44T. Araujo
  • 18L. Barreiro
  • 13J. Kaminski
  • 33Gabriel Indio
  • 26S. Dahl
  • 73M. Figueiredo
Coach: Marco Silva

Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs Benfica

Heart of Midlothian

  • W4-0Dundee United9 August 2026

Benfica

  • W6-1Heart of Midlothian6 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Heart of Midlothian and Benfica in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3Heart of MidlothianPremiership6402137+612
2BenficaUEFA Europa League110020+23

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premiership · UEFA Europa League

Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs Benfica

  • 13 August 2026Heart of Midlothian 1–1 BenficaUEFA Europa League
  • 6 August 2026Benfica 6–1 Heart of MidlothianUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and Benfica

Heart of Midlothian

  • J. Wilson3 goals
  • J. McPake2 goals4 assists
  • Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists

Benfica

  • J. Kamiński1 goals1 assists
  • D. Lukebakio1 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.