Benfica vs Heart of Midlothian UEFA Europa League prediction & result
Final score: Benfica 6-1 Heart of Midlothian.
Before kick-off the model made it 95% Benfica, 4% draw, 1% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 1.05, 25.00 and 100.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benfica at 95% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Benfica vs Heart of Midlothian
Line-ups
- 24S. SoaresG
- 6A. BahD
- 44T. AraujoD
- 2C. LengletD
- 26S. DahlD
- 18L. BarreiroM
- 5E. BarrenecheaM
- 25G. PrestianniM
- 10G. SudakovM
- 27Rafa SilvaM
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 1A. TrubinG
- 13J. KaminskiM
- 22J. DuranF
- 16ManuM
- 62J. NetoD
- 72AnisioF
- 33Gabriel Indio
- 11D. LukebakioM
- 17A. DedicD
- 1B. ReusG
- 23J. AltenaD
- 6O. McEnteeD
- 17S. FindlayD
- 18H. MilneD
- 7C. MillerM
- 78L. MendyM
- 16B. SpittalM
- 89A. KyziridisM
- 10C. BragaF
- 11P. KaboreF
- 30R. FultonG
- 28Z. ClarkG
- 29S. KerjotaF
- 15J. McPakeM
- 22T. MagnussonM
- 77A. Ba-SyF
- 5J. McCartD
- 12T. RenaudM
- 19S. GuendouzF
Form going into Benfica vs Heart of Midlothian
Benfica
- W5-0FC St. Gallen30 July 2026
- L1-2away to FC St. Gallen23 July 2026
Heart of Midlothian
- L1-2away to Aberdeen1 August 2026
- L0-2Sturm Graz28 July 2026
- L0-4away to Sturm Graz21 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Benfica and Heart of Midlothian in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | UEFA Europa League | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | Premiership | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 12 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Europa League · Premiership
Head-to-head: Benfica vs Heart of Midlothian
- 6 August 2026Benfica 6–1 Heart of MidlothianUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: Benfica and Heart of Midlothian
Benfica
- J. Kamiński1 goals1 assists
- D. Lukebakio1 goals
Heart of Midlothian
- J. Wilson3 goals
- J. McPake2 goals4 assists
- Cláudio Braga2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.