13 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg UEFA Europa League prediction & result

Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Pafos 3-3 Red Bull Salzburg.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Pafos, 22% draw, 41% Red Bull Salzburg — fair odds of 2.70, 4.55 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Red Bull Salzburg at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Pafos5%Draw90%Red Bull Salzburg5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Leleassist: Bruno
15'
36'
N. Veratschnig
⚽Biel
37'
46'
🔁S. Kitanoout: E. Baidoo
Bruno
48'
54'
⚽H. Tabakovicassist: D. Redzic
58'
⚽H. Tabakovic (pen)
🔁Gugaout: N. Moumi Ngamaleu
61'
70'
⚽H. Tabakovic
🔁I. Sunjicout: Anderson Silva
75'
75'
🔁H. Tabakovicout: K. Konate
🔁V. Dragomirout: M. Mammadov
82'
82'
🔁Y. Vertessenout: T. Drexler
82'
🔁N. Veratschnigout: L. Morgalla
⚽M. Mammadovassist: Lele
84'
86'
🔁D. Redzicout: F. Kratzig

Line-ups

Pafos
  • 99R. Majecki
  • 7Bruno
  • 5D. Goldar
  • 4David Luiz
  • 14N. Ioannou
  • 26I. Sunjic
  • 30V. Dragomir
  • 6Guga
  • 88Pepe
  • 20Biel
  • 18Lele
Substitutes
  • 71M. Papastylianou
  • 82P. Petrou
  • 3S. Mmaee
  • 72K. Ioannou
  • 61M. Kais
  • 13N. Moumi Ngamaleu
  • 50A. Brito
  • 47M. Mammadov
  • 60C. Efzona
Coach: Albert Celades
Red Bull Salzburg
  • 52C. Zawieschitzky
  • 18N. Veratschnig
  • 44K. Boma
  • 47V. Zabransky
  • 31D. Schmid
  • 32A. Barry
  • 15B. Mazurek
  • 8S. Kitano
  • 11Y. Vertessen
  • 23D. Redzic
  • 9H. Tabakovic
Substitutes
  • 1C. Fruchtl
  • 41N. Sarcevic
  • 21T. Drexler
  • 39L. Morgalla
  • 13F. Kratzig
  • 4J. Mellberg
  • 14M. Kjaergaard
  • 28F. Matijasevic
  • 19K. Konate
Coach: Danny Rohl

Form going into Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg

Pafos

  • L0-1away to Red Bull Salzburg6 August 2026
  • W2-0HNK Hajduk Split30 July 2026
  • L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split23 July 2026

Red Bull Salzburg

  • D1-1away to Wolfsberger AC9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Pafos and Red Bull Salzburg in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3Red Bull SalzburgBundesliga6420154+1114

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Pafos has not started the league season yet. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · Bundesliga

Head-to-head: Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg

  • 13 August 2026Pafos 3–3 Red Bull SalzburgUEFA Europa League
  • 6 August 2026Red Bull Salzburg 1–0 PafosUEFA Europa League

Leading scorers: Pafos and Red Bull Salzburg

Pafos

No leading scorers listed yet.

Red Bull Salzburg

  • K. Konaté4 goals
  • H. Tabaković3 goals
  • Y. Vertessen2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.