St Johnstone vs Hibernian Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Johnstone 2-1 Hibernian.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% St Johnstone, 28% draw, 30% Hibernian — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St Johnstone at 42% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Johnstone vs Hibernian
Line-ups
- 1T. StewardG
- 33L. SmithD
- 5Z. MitchellD
- 3C. DiabateD
- 2E. AlıçD
- 11S. StantonM
- 42R. McAlearM
- 8J. HoltM
- 7T. StevenF
- 9J. FowlerF
- 10J. GullanF
- 4M. BoyesD
- 30Joel CotterillM
- 18K. FotheringhamF
- 14M. FouldsD
- 99R. PatonF
- 22D. SchmidtF
- 20R. SinclairG
- 25M. TaitM
- 26M. ToddM
- 1R. SallingerG
- 25F. PasslackD
- 6J. KerrD
- 4G. HanleyD
- 3A. MayorD
- 24J. DevaneyM
- 10M. BoyleM
- 8J. MulliganM
- 14M. ChaiwaM
- 17J. McGrathM
- 9N. LoweF
- 11J. NewellM
- 13J. SmithG
- 22A. ŠutoF
- 12Alex WilliamsD
- 23C. WrightM
- 27K. MegwaD
- 18T. KlidjeF
- 19N. CaddenM
- 49A. AbdulaiM
Form going into St Johnstone vs Hibernian
St Johnstone
- D1-1away to Dundee2 September 2026
- L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian29 August 2026
- L0-1away to St Mirren8 August 2026
Hibernian
- L1-3Heart of Midlothian3 September 2026
- W2-1away to Dundee30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Rangers9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | St Johnstone | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Hibernian | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Johnstone vs Hibernian
- 6 September 2026St Johnstone 2–1 HibernianPremiership
- 29 March 2025Hibernian 3–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 2 January 2025St Johnstone 1–1 HibernianPremiership
- 14 September 2024Hibernian 2–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 27 April 2024St Johnstone 1–3 HibernianPremiership
- 6 April 2024Hibernian 1–2 St JohnstonePremiership
Leading scorers: St Johnstone and Hibernian
St Johnstone
- J. Fowler4 goals1 assists
Hibernian
- C. Wright2 goals
- M. Boyle2 goals
- N. Lowe1 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.