Arsenal vs Chelsea Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Arsenal, 26% draw, 22% Chelsea — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Arsenal at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arsenal vs Chelsea
Line-ups
- 1David RayaG
- 4B. WhiteD
- 15E. KonsaD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 41D. RiceM
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyM
- 7B. SakaM
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 17C. TzolisM
- 29K. HavertzF
- 13KepaG
- 5P. HincapiéD
- 10E. EzeM
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 56M. DowmanM
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 20N. MaduekeF
- 1E. MartínezG
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
- 5M. LacroixD
- 3W. FofanaD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 45R. LaviaM
- 24R. JamesM
- 21J. HatoM
- 10C. PalmerM
- 17M. RogersM
- 9João PedroF
- 41EstêvãoF
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 4V. BarcoM
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 29Pep ChavarríaD
- 11J. Bynoe-GittensF
- 27M. GustoD
- 6L. ColwillD
- 39M. PendersG
Form going into Arsenal vs Chelsea
Arsenal
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
- W3-0Coventry21 August 2026
Chelsea
All competitions we cover
- W4-3Brighton30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Chelsea
- 1 March 2026Arsenal 2–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 3 February 2026Arsenal 1–0 ChelseaLeague Cup
- 14 January 2026Chelsea 2–3 ArsenalLeague Cup
- 30 November 2025Chelsea 1–1 ArsenalPremier League
- 16 March 2025Arsenal 1–0 ChelseaPremier League
Leading scorers: Arsenal and Chelsea
Arsenal
GoalsAssists
- K. Havertz30
- M. Ødegaard30
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers51
- Pedro Neto31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arsenal beat Chelsea 2–1. The model had made a win for Arsenal its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–0. The goals: Morgan Rogers 2' for Chelsea, Kai Havertz 25' for Arsenal, Martin Odegaard 50' for Arsenal.
How the call on Arsenal v Chelsea has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 54% / 26% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 52% / 26% / 22%: the biggest move is Arsenal's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Arsenal win52%▼ −2
- Draw26%=
- Chelsea win22%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.