Arsenal vs Chelsea Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Arsenal, 26% draw, 22% Chelsea — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arsenal at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Arsenal vs Chelsea
Line-ups
- 1David RayaG
- 4B. WhiteD
- 15E. KonsaD
- 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
- 33R. CalafioriD
- 41D. RiceM
- 49M. Lewis-SkellyM
- 7B. SakaM
- 8M. ØdegaardM
- 17C. TzolisM
- 29K. HavertzF
- 13KepaG
- 5P. HincapiéD
- 10E. EzeM
- 23Mikel MerinoM
- 36Martín ZubimendiM
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 56M. DowmanM
- 14V. GyökeresF
- 20N. MaduekeF
- 1E. MartínezG
- 34Joshua Kofi AcheampongD
- 5M. LacroixD
- 3W. FofanaD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 45R. LaviaM
- 24R. JamesM
- 21J. HatoM
- 10C. PalmerM
- 17M. RogersM
- 9João PedroF
- 41EstêvãoF
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 4V. BarcoM
- 23Geovany Tcherno QuendaM
- 29Pep ChavarríaD
- 11J. Bynoe-GittensF
- 27M. GustoD
- 6L. ColwillD
- 39M. PendersG
Form going into Arsenal vs Chelsea
Arsenal
- W1-0away to Aston Villa31 August 2026
- W3-0Coventry21 August 2026
Chelsea
- W4-3Brighton30 August 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham24 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 12 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Arsenal vs Chelsea
- 6 September 2026Arsenal 2–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 1 March 2026Arsenal 2–1 ChelseaPremier League
- 3 February 2026Arsenal 1–0 ChelseaLeague Cup
- 14 January 2026Chelsea 2–3 ArsenalLeague Cup
- 30 November 2025Chelsea 1–1 ArsenalPremier League
- 16 March 2025Arsenal 1–0 ChelseaPremier League
Leading scorers: Arsenal and Chelsea
Arsenal
- B. Saka3 goals
- M. Ødegaard2 goals
- K. Havertz2 goals
Chelsea
- João Pedro3 goals3 assists
- M. Rogers3 goals1 assists
- C. Palmer2 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.