St Mirren vs Celtic Premiership prediction & result
Final score: St Mirren 1-2 Celtic.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% St Mirren, 29% draw, 37% Celtic — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celtic at 37% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — St Mirren vs Celtic
Line-ups
- 1J. ChapmanG
- 47C. RamsayD
- 13A. GogićD
- 53Henry FieldsonD
- 3D. JohnD
- 8R. CarrM
- 48P. NsioM
- 23C. MochrieM
- 30F. TaylorM
- 19Ismeal KabiaM
- 25N. AgrafiotisF
- 16L. ThomasM
- 9Eseosa SuleF
- 2J. RichardsonD
- 10SamuM
- 31R. MullenG
- 37C. McEvoyM
- 6Louis JacksonD
- 20J. YoungF
- 24J. FarquharF
- 1V. SinisaloG
- 51Colby DonovanD
- 20C. Carter-VickersD
- 6A. TrustyD
- 5L. ScalesD
- 42C. McGregorM
- 22M. BaurM
- 23H. HassanM
- 8B. NygrenM
- 13Yang Hyun-JunM
- 11C. DuránF
- 35J. van den BergM
- 17S. TounektiF
- 18O. SørensenM
- 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
- 47D. MurrayD
- 29Shumaira MheukaF
- 3J. LotombaD
- 26S. JohnstoneG
- 49J. ForrestM
Form going into St Mirren vs Celtic
St Mirren
- W1-0away to Kilmarnock2 September 2026
- D3-3Motherwell30 August 2026
- W1-0St Johnstone8 August 2026
Celtic
- W3-0Aberdeen2 September 2026
- W2-1Falkirk29 August 2026
- W5-1away to Kilmarnock9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | St Mirren | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 |
| 1 | Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | +11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: St Mirren vs Celtic
- 5 September 2026St Mirren 1–2 CelticPremiership
- 19 April 2026Celtic 6–2 St MirrenFA Cup
- 11 April 2026Celtic 1–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 14 December 2025St Mirren 3–1 CelticLeague Cup
- 22 November 2025St Mirren 0–1 CelticPremiership
- 3 August 2025Celtic 1–0 St MirrenPremiership
Leading scorers: St Mirren and Celtic
St Mirren
- K. Phillips3 goals
- Samu1 goals2 assists
Celtic
- C. Durán3 goals3 assists
- B. Nygren3 goals3 assists
- K. Høgh3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.