6 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Hibernian vs Shkendija UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Easter Road, Edinburgh
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Hibernian 2-1 Shkendija.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Hibernian, 21% draw, 58% Shkendija — fair odds of 4.76, 4.76 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Shkendija at 58% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hibernian4%Draw90%Shkendija6%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

O. Elding
56'
🔁M. Boyleout: A. Suto
60'
🔁A. Mayorout: C. Wright
60'
M. Chaiwa
63'
63'
🔁E. Krasniqiout: M. Murati
64'
🔁A. Kryeziuout: V. Krstevski
70'
D. Islami
73'
🔁F. Ndzengueout: M. Gjorgjievski
⚽O. Eldingassist: C. Wright
73'
🔁J. Mulliganout: A. Abdulai
74'
76'
⚽M. Gjorgjievskiassist: A. Zejnullai
80'
M. Murati
90+3'
V. Krstevski
🔁N. Loweout: T. Klidje
90+2'
🔁M. Chaiwaout: J. Campbell
90+1'
90+3'
🔁A. Zejnullaiout: F. Ramadani
⚽W. O'Hora
90'

Match stats — Hibernian vs Shkendija

57%Possession43%
4On target2
4Corners3

Line-ups

Hibernian 4-3-3
  • 1R. SallingerG
  • 25F. PasslackM
  • 6J. KerrD
  • 5W. O'HoraD
  • 21J. ObitaD
  • 8J. MulliganM
  • 14M. ChaiwaM
  • 3A. MayorM
  • 7O. EldingF
  • 9N. LoweF
  • 10M. BoyleF
Substitutes
  • 13J. SmithG
  • 35F. OwensG
  • 4G. HanleyD
  • 11J. NewellM
  • 18T. KlidjeF
  • 20R. Molotnikov
  • 22A. SutoF
  • 23C. WrightM
  • 27K. MegwaM
Coach: David Gray
Shkendija 4-2-3-1
  • 30F. RamaniG
  • 2A. TrumciD
  • 55J. ManevD
  • 26A. MeljichiD
  • 17A. ZejnullaiM
  • 8RafaM
  • 5D. IslamiM
  • 29F. TambaF
  • 10E. KrasniqiM
  • 11A. KryeziuM
  • 9F. NdzengueF
Substitutes
  • 25A. AmzaiG
  • 7B. IbraimiF
  • 16M. MuratiD
  • 18N. CekaD
  • 19V. KrstevskiF
  • 21A. IsaM
  • 49S. SpahiuM
  • 77F. RamadaniM
  • 99M. GjorgjievskiF
Coach: Artim Polozani

Form going into Hibernian vs Shkendija

Hibernian

  • L1-2Motherwell2 August 2026
  • W4-1Malisheva30 July 2026
  • L0-2away to Malisheva23 July 2026

Shkendija

  • W3-1Bravo30 July 2026
  • L1-2away to Bravo23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Hibernian vs Shkendija

  • 6 August 2026Hibernian 2–1 ShkendijaUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Hibernian and Shkendija

Hibernian

  • C. Wright2 goals
  • M. Boyle2 goals
  • N. Lowe1 goals1 assists

Shkendija

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.