6 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

FK Jablonec vs Rīgas FS UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stadion Strelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FK Jablonec 2-0 Rīgas FS.

Before kick-off the model made it 68% FK Jablonec, 19% draw, 13% Rīgas FS — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Jablonec at 68% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FK Jablonec99%Draw1%Rīgas FS0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽V. Chanturishviliassist: F. Zorvan
18'
46'
🔁M. Kigursout: D. Korac
⚽M. Polidarassist: M. Cedidla
53'
🔁L. Jawoout: A. Rusek
62'
🔁F. Zorvanout: S. Nebyla
62'
76'
🔁S. Rakicout: M. Saidy
🔁N. Okekeout: J. Suchan
79'
🔁V. Chanturishviliout: H. Ahl
86'
🔁M. Polidarout: J. Chramosta
86'
89'
🔁L. Odishariaout: A. Balde

Match stats — FK Jablonec vs Rīgas FS

46%Possession54%
5On target1
2Corners6

Line-ups

FK Jablonec 3-5-1-1
  • 1J. HanusG
  • 18M. CedidlaD
  • 4N. TekijaskiD
  • 15D. PavlovicD
  • 7V. ChanturishviliM
  • 13R. SedlacekM
  • 6N. OkekeM
  • 21M. PolidarM
  • 20J. SlamaD
  • 8F. ZorvanM
  • 44L. JawoF
Substitutes
  • 99K. MihelakG
  • 9A. RusekF
  • 10J. SuchanM
  • 14D. SoucekD
  • 16H. AhlM
  • 19J. ChramostaF
  • 23E. SobolM
  • 25S. NebylaM
  • 27F. VechetaF
Coach: Lubos Kozel
Rīgas FS 4-2-3-1
  • 1R. MatrevicsG
  • 6A. FilipovicD
  • 23H. PrengaD
  • 43Z. LipuscekD
  • 18D. ZelenkovsM
  • 81S. RakicM
  • 26S. PanicM
  • 8L. OdishariaM
  • 49M. KigursM
  • 10J. IkaunieksM
  • 15R. NdjikiF
Substitutes
  • 40M. MuizzemnieksG
  • 4R. VeipsD
  • 5N. SliedeD
  • 9D. KoracF
  • 14M. SyllaM
  • 19A. BaldeM
  • 21N. DusalijevsM
  • 66M. SaidyM
  • 77G. MankendaM
Coach: Viktors Morozs

Form going into FK Jablonec vs Rīgas FS

FK Jablonec

  • W2-0away to Pardubice2 August 2026
  • W2-0NK Varazdin30 July 2026
  • W2-1Sigma Olomouc26 July 2026
  • L2-3away to NK Varazdin23 July 2026

Rīgas FS

  • D1-1away to Vestri30 July 2026
  • W4-1Vestri23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: FK Jablonec vs Rīgas FS

  • 6 August 2026FK Jablonec 2–0 Rīgas FSUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: FK Jablonec and Rīgas FS

FK Jablonec

  • M. Cedidla3 goals

Rīgas FS

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.