6 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Bolt Arena, Helsinki
Full time1 – 1

Final score: HJK Helsinki 1-1 Motherwell.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% HJK Helsinki, 21% draw, 27% Motherwell — fair odds of 1.92, 4.76 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts HJK Helsinki at 52% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HJK Helsinki6%Draw90%Motherwell4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

25'
Alex Lowry
53'
Oscar Priestman
Miska Ylitolva
56'
Liam Möller
59'
64'
⚽T. Maswanhise (pen)
🔁M. Ylitolvaout: K. Simojoki
66'
66'
🔁L. Fadingerout: O. Whyte
66'
🔁W. Vogtout: M. Booth
🔁P. Mentuout: L. Lingman
70'
🔁M. Borchersout: T. Pukki
70'
⚽T. Pukkiassist: K. Simojoki
71'
73'
🔁A. Lowryout: J. Knight-Lebel
🔁T. Meroout: A. Cicale
80'
🔁S. Haaralaout: L. Lappalainen
80'
80'
🔁R. Charles-Cookout: J. Koutroumbis
80'
🔁E. Longeloout: L. Ross
82'
Jake Girdwood-Reich

Match stats — HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell

52%Possession48%
5On target2
5Corners3

Line-ups

HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
  • 44M. MarkovicG
  • 28M. YlitolvaD
  • 6V. TikkanenD
  • 3T. CissokhoD
  • 14L. MontanoD
  • 22L. MollerM
  • 8P. MentuM
  • 29S. HaaralaF
  • 4A. RingM
  • 18T. MeroM
  • 9M. BorchersF
Substitutes
  • 1J. OstG
  • 12M. HaapanenG
  • 5A. NalloD
  • 7A. CicaleM
  • 10L. LingmanM
  • 13K. SimojokiD
  • 15J. KallinenM
  • 17M. KirilovM
  • 20T. PukkiF
Coach: Joonas Rantanen
Motherwell 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. PaulsenG
  • 7T. SparrowM
  • 5M. MoormannD
  • 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
  • 45E. LongeloD
  • 8L. FadingerM
  • 12O. PriestmanM
  • 77W. VogtF
  • 11A. LowryM
  • 17R. Charles-CookF
  • 18T. MaswanhiseF
Substitutes
  • 21Matty ConnellyG
  • 31J. McConnellG
  • 4J. Knight-LebelD
  • 22J. KoutroumbisD
  • 23E. WilsonD
  • 24L. RossF
  • 25O. WhyteM
  • 27M. BoothM
  • 29Z. McAllisterM
Coach: Alfred Johansson

Form going into HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell

HJK Helsinki

  • W3-0away to Coleraine FC30 July 2026
  • W5-0Coleraine FC23 July 2026

Motherwell

  • W2-1away to Hibernian2 August 2026
  • W3-0away to HB Torshavn30 July 2026
  • W2-0HB Torshavn23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HJK Helsinki and Motherwell in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
3HJK HelsinkiVeikkausliiga2211473627+937
5MotherwellPremiership622289-18

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Veikkausliiga · Premiership

Head-to-head: HJK Helsinki vs Motherwell

  • 6 August 2026HJK Helsinki 1–1 MotherwellUEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: HJK Helsinki and Motherwell

HJK Helsinki

  • M. Borchers4 goals
  • T. Pukki3 goals2 assists

Motherwell

  • Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise1 goals2 assists
  • A. Lowry1 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.