15 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Mariehamn vs SJK Veikkausliiga prediction & result

Mariehamn
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Mariehamn 2-0 SJK.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Mariehamn, 27% draw, 52% SJK — fair odds of 4.76, 3.70 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts SJK at 52% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mariehamn99%Draw1%SJK0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽R. Monteiroassist: A. Bergvik
18'
🔁A. Stroudout: M. Hyvonen
28'
🔁R. Monteiroout: A. Huttunen
33'
🔁A. Bergvikout: V. Widlund
46'
46'
🔁O. Vaistoout: K. Nwanege
46'
🔁A. Bostromout: M. Suso
⚽N. Nurmiassist: F. Gyamfi
48'
61'
🔁J. Strengout: E. Mastokangas
65'
Facundo Constantini
67'
🔁A. Wilsonout: Caio Araujo
Ludvig Richtnér
68'
77'
Gospel Chibueze Junior Onuoha
79'
🔁E. Onuohaout: L. Vesterbacka
🔁A. Larssonout: T. Jakobsen
86'

Line-ups

Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. LundG
  • 4L. RichtnerD
  • 2N. NurmiD
  • 15F. GyamfiD
  • 3A. SoiniemiD
  • 11J. SvedbergM
  • 8J. HeydenM
  • 22R. MonteiroM
  • 14A. BergvikM
  • 18A. StroudM
  • 7A. LarssonF
Substitutes
  • 32M. RiikonenG
  • 5T. KoivistoD
  • 24O. Pajunen
  • 64M. HyvonenM
  • 43L. AnderssonF
  • 16A. HuttunenM
  • 9W. NunezF
  • 23V. WidlundD
  • 19T. Jakobsen
Coach: Roberth Bjorknesjo
SJK 4-4-2
  • 1R. PaunioG
  • 6S. YussifD
  • 2F. CostantiniD
  • 5O. VaistoD
  • 14Murilo HenriqueM
  • 31E. OnuohaM
  • 8A. BostromM
  • 23A. WilsonM
  • 15E. MommoD
  • 9J. StrengF
  • 7KelwinF
Substitutes
  • 35J. ViitalaG
  • 26J. MoisioD
  • 28K. NwanegeD
  • 19E. MastokangasM
  • 22L. VesterbackaM
  • 42Caio Araujo
  • 47M. SusoM
  • 51A. CisseF
  • 43S. Bagayogo
Coach: Jarkko Wiss

Form going into Mariehamn vs SJK

Mariehamn

  • L0-2away to Ilves9 August 2026

SJK

  • D2-2Gnistan7 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Veikkausliiga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Mariehamn2235141743-2614
10SJK2247112533-819

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mariehamn vs SJK

  • 15 August 2026Mariehamn 2–0 SJKVeikkausliiga
  • 10 April 2026SJK 3–0 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • 28 June 2025SJK 4–1 MariehamnVeikkausliiga
  • 19 April 2025Mariehamn 1–2 SJKVeikkausliiga
  • 21 July 2024Mariehamn 0–4 SJKVeikkausliiga
  • 31 May 2024SJK 0–2 MariehamnVeikkausliiga

Leading scorers: Mariehamn and SJK

Mariehamn

No player in Veikkausliiga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

SJK

  • E. Mastokangas2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.