HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961 HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Istra 1961.
Before kick-off the model made it 64% HNK Hajduk Split, 16% draw, 20% Istra 1961 — fair odds of 1.56, 6.25 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 64% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33T. SilicG
- 38L. HodakD
- 15D. MaresicD
- 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
- 32S. HrgovicD
- 8N. SigurM
- 4A. PajazitiM
- 7A. SanyangF
- 21R. PukstasM
- 23M. SoticekF
- 11M. SegoF
- 44D. StipicaG
- 99D. FesyukG
- 20A. del MoralM
- 26A. GuramM
- 14R. RaciD
- 10M. LivajaF
- 17D. MelnjakD
- 9D. de AlmeidaM
- 19E. BrrutiM
- 1F. KolicG
- 44R. HrvatinD
- 3M. NasraouiD
- 16S. MiettinenD
- 13N. SepicD
- 88D. DoumbiaM
- 25G. AlbarracinM
- 22E. FrederiksenM
- 80I. SaranicM
- 30N. Skafar ZuzicM
- 94H. JaganjacF
- 40J. Paus-KunstG
- 18S. BanguraF
- 24F. TarabaD
- 20D. AhmetiM
- 27D. CelijaF
- 97A. KadusicD
- 7V. RozicF
- 8A. MauricM
- 23S. UkichM
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961
HNK Hajduk Split
- W5-2away to FK Zalgiris Vilnius6 August 2026
- L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
- L0-2away to Pafos30 July 2026
- W2-0Pafos23 July 2026
Istra 1961
- L2-3NK Lokomotiva Zagreb1 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 16 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Hajduk Split vs Istra 1961
- 9 August 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 7 April 2026Istra 1961 1–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 25 January 2026HNK Hajduk Split 1–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 19 October 2025Istra 1961 0–3 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 3 August 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–1 Istra 1961HNL
- 23 April 2025HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 Istra 1961HNL
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Istra 1961
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Šego4 goals
- M. Livaja3 goals
- M. Šotiček2 goals1 assists
Istra 1961
- E. Frederiksen7 goals2 assists
- H. Jaganjac4 goals1 assists
- D. Ahmeti2 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.