8 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica HNL prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Full time3 – 1

Final score: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3-1 HNK Gorica.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 26% draw, 32% HNK Gorica — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 42% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Maricassist: M. Pajac
12'
⚽A. Kavelj (OG)
40'
Marko Vešović
45+1'
Ivan Katić
45+1'
45+1'
Domagoj Pavičić
56'
🔁K. Custovicout: L. Vrzic
60'
⚽B. Bogojevicassist: L. Vrzic
🔁J. Vasiljout: L. Belcar
63'
🔁M. Susakout: D. Thaqi
63'
Dominik Thaqi
68'
Marko Pajač
74'
78'
🔁J. Friganout: M. Gashi
Athanasios Triantafyllou
79'
79'
Patrik Mijić
🔁I. Katicout: T. Kralevski
80'
🔁M. Maricout: M. Lorber
80'
85'
🔁F. Brautout: B. Kardum
🔁M. Suboticout: N. Djurkovic
90+3'
⚽N. Djurkovicassist: D. Vukovic
90'

Match stats — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica

46%Possession54%
11Shots15
4On target4
9Corners3
1.13xG1.52

Goals against chances

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb3 from 1.13 xGmore than the chances were worth
HNK Gorica1 from 1.52 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4-1-4-1
  • 12J. PosavecG
  • 23M. VesovicD
  • 5T. JukicD
  • 4A. TriantafyllouD
  • 17M. PajacD
  • 10M. SuboticM
  • 7D. VukovicM
  • 8I. KaticM
  • 29J. VasiljM
  • 11M. SusakM
  • 24M. MaricF
Substitutes
  • 32L. SavatovicG
  • 9L. BelcarM
  • 20K. CabrajicD
  • 21T. KralevskiD
  • 22M. AntunovicF
  • 14M. LorberM
  • 6F. FetaiM
  • 27N. GodecD
  • 30D. ReicM
Coach: Nikica Jelavic
HNK Gorica 3-4-2-1
  • 71D. MatijasG
  • 45S. PericD
  • 32J. FilipovicD
  • 34I. CvijanovicD
  • 2F. BrautM
  • 66J. FriganM
  • 36A. KaveljM
  • 25B. BogojevicM
  • 4K. CustovicF
  • 24D. PavicicF
  • 9P. MijicF
Substitutes
  • 30D. ZarkovG
  • 1R. JosipovicG
  • 99M. GashiF
  • 18B. KardumF
  • 7O. BakicM
  • 26K. CaroleF
  • 21H. I. Moustapha
  • 20L. VrzicF
  • 14S. KucisM
Coach: Mario Carevic

Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • W3-2away to Istra 19611 August 2026

HNK Gorica

  • L0-2NK Osijek1 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7NK Lokomotiva Zagreb7214913-47
10HNK Gorica7025412-82

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Gorica

  • 8 August 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–1 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 17 April 2026HNK Gorica 0–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 6 February 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–0 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 3 November 2025HNK Gorica 4–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
  • 16 August 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 HNK GoricaHNL
  • 24 May 2025HNK Gorica 0–3 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL

Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Gorica

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

  • D. Vuković2 goals2 assists

HNK Gorica

  • B. Bogojević3 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.