14 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Dinamo Zagreb vs Rudes HNL prediction & result

Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Dinamo Zagreb 4-0 Rudes.

Before kick-off the model made it 85% Dinamo Zagreb, 10% draw, 5% Rudes — fair odds of 1.18, 10.00 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 85% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Zagreb99%Draw1%Rudes0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽D. Beljoassist: S. Radeljic
6'
⚽L. Kacavenda
39'
50'
🔁Felipe Curcioout: V. Celjak
52'
Xavier Fernandes
56'
Stefan Vukić
58'
•Ante Sušak
60'
Ante Sušak
🔁J. Misicout: S. Dominguez
60'
🔁L. Kacavendaout: R. Mudrazija
60'
60'
🔁J. Blagaicout: V. Seitz
60'
🔁S. Vukicout: L. Ilecic
⚽D. Beljo (pen)
61'
⚽A. Hoxhaassist: R. Mudrazija
63'
🔁M. Zajcout: S. Sunta
65'
🔁D. Beljoout: S. Prevljak
65'
🔁F. Topicout: M. Lisica
72'
80'
Vid Seitz
85'
🔁Xaviout: D. Zivulic
85'
🔁J. Poldrugacout: J. Pejic
Sergi Domínguez
90+2'

Match stats — Dinamo Zagreb vs Rudes

64%Possession36%
24Shots9
13On target2
12Corners3
3.4xG0.39

Goals against chances

Dinamo Zagreb4 from 3.40 xGmore than the chances were worth
Rudes0 from 0.39 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dinamo Zagreb 4-3-3
  • 33I. NevisticG
  • 13P. TabinasD
  • 15N. GalesicD
  • 6S. RadeljicD
  • 3B. GodaD
  • 80L. KacavendaM
  • 27J. MisicM
  • 8M. ZajcM
  • 30F. TopicF
  • 9D. BeljoF
  • 11A. HoxhaF
Substitutes
  • 1D. ZagoracG
  • 25M. ValincicD
  • 36S. DominguezD
  • 26S. McKennaD
  • 22M. Perez VinlofD
  • 20R. MudrazijaM
  • 21M. LisicaF
  • 41S. SuntaM
  • 99M. OrsicF
Coach: Mario Kovacevic
Rudes 4-2-3-1
  • 95L. RogicG
  • 14B. Unusic
  • 5M. StolnikD
  • 27Felipe CurcioD
  • 21A. SusakD
  • 28XaviM
  • 15N. SkokoM
  • 2T. KolegaM
  • 20J. BlagaicM
  • 11J. PoldrugacM
  • 9S. VukicF
Substitutes
  • 1F. HoljevacG
  • 32S. DuvnjakG
  • 92D. ZivulicD
  • 4V. CeljakD
  • 23A. UdovicicD
  • 10V. SeitzM
  • 25A. SpekuljukF
  • 7L. IlecicF
  • 17J. PejicF
Coach: Alen Peternac

Form going into Dinamo Zagreb vs Rudes

Dinamo Zagreb

  • W2-1away to Kauno Žalgiris11 August 2026
  • W5-0Kauno Žalgiris4 August 2026
  • W2-0NK Slaven Belupo31 July 2026
  • W3-2FC Thun28 July 2026
  • D1-1away to FC Thun21 July 2026

Rudes

  • L1-6NK Osijek8 August 2026
  • L1-2away to HNK Rijeka2 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Dinamo Zagreb6411147+713
9Rudes7106822-143

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dinamo Zagreb vs Rudes

  • 26 May 2024Dinamo Zagreb 3–3 RudesHNL
  • 17 March 2024Rudes 0–3 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 9 December 2023Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 RudesHNL
  • 24 September 2023Rudes 1–5 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
  • 16 December 2020Rudes 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebCup
  • 7 April 2019Rudes 0–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL

Leading scorers: Dinamo Zagreb and Rudes

Dinamo Zagreb

  • D. Beljo7 goals3 assists

Rudes

  • L. Ilečić2 goals2 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.