9 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin HNL prediction & result

Gradski stadion Ivan Kusek Apas, Koprivnica
Full time1 – 4

Final score: NK Slaven Belupo 1-4 NK Varazdin.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% NK Slaven Belupo, 27% draw, 43% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 3.33, 3.70 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts NK Varazdin at 43% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

NK Slaven Belupo0%Draw1%NK Varazdin99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
Luka Škaričić
26'
⚽I. Canjugaassist: G. Sikosek
28'
⚽L. Mamicassist: G. Sikosek
29'
•Luka Mamić
29'
🔁L. Skaricicout: N. Tepsic
44'
⚽A. Latkovicassist: I. Mamut
🔁A. Adeshinaout: M. Dabro
46'
🔁A. Jonssonout: L. Bosnjak
46'
69'
🔁A. Latkovicout: M. Vuk
69'
🔁M. Marinaout: T. Duvnjak
69'
🔁F. Maglicaout: L. Posinkovic
⚽I. Nestorovskiassist: M. Dabro
71'
78'
⚽I. Canjugaassist: M. Vuk
Dominik Kovačić
82'
🔁J. Mitrovicout: A. Grgic
83'
🔁L. Crepuljaout: D. Bosak
83'
85'
🔁I. Tavaresout: E. Uchegbu
🔁L. Banovecout: P. Maric
90+2'

Match stats — NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin

57%Possession43%
12Shots24
6On target8
5Corners5
0.95xG2.49

Goals against chances

NK Slaven Belupo1 from 0.95 xGabout what the chances were worth
NK Varazdin4 from 2.49 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

NK Slaven Belupo 4-2-3-1
  • 30K. SenticG
  • 18F. KruseljD
  • 4D. KovacicD
  • 5I. Cvetko
  • 77I. UrataD
  • 23A. JonssonM
  • 21L. CrepuljaM
  • 11J. MitrovicM
  • 22A. Adeshina
  • 8L. BanovecM
  • 90I. NestorovskiF
Substitutes
  • 32I. CovicG
  • 27A. GrgicF
  • 88D. BosakM
  • 20M. PetrovicD
  • 13A. BilobrkD
  • 7M. DabroF
  • 29L. LoncarF
  • 28P. MaricF
  • 24L. BosnjakM
Coach: Mario Gregurina
NK Varazdin 4-2-3-1
  • 33J. SilicG
  • 23F. MaglicaD
  • 13M. MladenovskiD
  • 4L. SkaricicD
  • 20G. SikosekD
  • 28I. CanjugaM
  • 24M. MarinaM
  • 10A. LatkovicM
  • 22L. MamicM
  • 38I. TavaresM
  • 17I. MamutF
Substitutes
  • 1O. ZelenikaG
  • 12P. BockajD
  • 6D. PuclinM
  • 21I. PosavecM
  • 7M. VukF
  • 8T. DuvnjakM
  • 5S. LesjakD
  • 18PaizinhoF
  • 9S. JuricF
Coach: Nikola Safaric

Form going into NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin

NK Slaven Belupo

  • L0-2away to Dinamo Zagreb31 July 2026

NK Varazdin

  • W2-1HNK Hajduk Split2 August 2026
  • L0-2away to FK Jablonec30 July 2026
  • W3-2FK Jablonec23 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

HNL table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8NK Slaven Belupo7205514-96
3NK Varazdin7421137+614

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: NK Slaven Belupo vs NK Varazdin

  • 9 August 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 12 April 2026NK Varazdin 2–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • 31 January 2026NK Slaven Belupo 0–2 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 25 October 2025NK Varazdin 1–3 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
  • 10 August 2025NK Slaven Belupo 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
  • 22 April 2025NK Slaven Belupo 0–1 NK VarazdinHNL

Leading scorers: NK Slaven Belupo and NK Varazdin

NK Slaven Belupo

  • I. Nestorovski3 goals

NK Varazdin

  • I. Canjuga3 goals2 assists
  • L. Mamić3 goals
  • A. Latković2 goals1 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.