HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% HNK Hajduk Split, 20% draw, 44% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 2.78, 5.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raków Częstochowa at 44% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa
HNK Hajduk Split
- W2-1away to HNK Gorica16 August 2026
Raków Częstochowa
- L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hammarby FF13 August 2026
- D0-0Hammarby FF6 August 2026
- L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026
- W4-0away to Valletta FC30 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNK Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 16 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 3 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: HNL · Ekstraklasa
Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Šego4 goals
- M. Livaja3 goals
- M. Šotiček2 goals1 assists
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch5 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.