20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Stadion Poljud, Split
Full time2 – 2

Final score: HNK Hajduk Split 2-2 Raków Częstochowa.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% HNK Hajduk Split, 20% draw, 44% Raków Częstochowa — fair odds of 2.78, 5.00 and 2.27.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

First leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League Playoff round tie. Second leg: Raków Częstochowa v HNK Hajduk Split, 27 Aug →

HNK Hajduk Split went through 5–4 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Raków Częstochowa at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

HNK Hajduk Split91%Draw9%Raków Częstochowa0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽M. Segoassist: A. Sanyang
21'
27'
⚽M. Emreliassist: E. Otieno
31'
Erick Otieno
Šimun Hrgović
34'
46'
🔁S. Svarnasout: D. G. Debohi
⚽D. de Almeidaassist: M. Soticek
47'
Adrion Pajaziti
55'
58'
🔁E. Otienoout: J. C. Silva
58'
🔁O. Kwiatkowskiout: T. Pienko
🔁M. Soticekout: A. del Moral
61'
Dalisson de Almeida
62'
67'
🔁F. Tudorout: A. Brorsson
🔁A. Sanyangout: A. Sutalo
68'
🔁D. de Almeidaout: D. Melnjak
68'
74'
🔁V. Kocherginout: I. Brusberg
🔁M. Segoout: M. Livaja
76'
🔁S. Hrgovicout: A. Van Hoorenbeeck
77'
Alberto del Moral
80'
81'
Tomasz Pieńko
Rokas Pukštas
90+4'
90'
⚽L. Diaby-Fadigaassist: I. Brusberg

Match stats — HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa

60%Possession40%
2On target6
7Corners5

Line-ups

HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilicG
  • 8N. SigurD
  • 15D. MaresicD
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 32S. HrgovicD
  • 4A. PajazitiM
  • 21R. PukstasM
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 9D. de AlmeidaM
  • 23M. SoticekM
  • 11M. SegoF
Substitutes
  • 1I. IvusicG
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 3R. GabricD
  • 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 10M. LivajaF
  • 16A. SutaloM
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 19E. BrrutiM
  • 20A. del MoralM
Coach: Gonzalo Garcia
Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 7F. TudorD
  • 25B. RacovitanD
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 19M. AmeyawM
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 26E. OtienoM
  • 80L. Diaby-FadigaF
  • 11M. EmreliF
  • 15O. KwiatkowskiM
Substitutes
  • 29W. ZolneczkoG
  • 71T. KaricG
  • 2J. NapierajM
  • 3A. BrorssonD
  • 17J. JendrykaM
  • 20J. C. SilvaM
  • 21T. PienkoM
  • 23K. StruskiM
  • 39I. BrusbergM
Coach: Dawid Kroczek

Form going into HNK Hajduk Split vs Raków Częstochowa

HNK Hajduk Split

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to HNK Gorica16 August 2026
  • W4-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius13 August 2026
  • D2-2Istra 19619 August 2026
  • W5-2away to FK Zalgiris Vilnius6 August 2026
  • L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026

Raków Częstochowa

All competitions we cover

  • L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Hammarby FF13 August 2026
  • L2-3Zaglebie Lubin9 August 2026
  • D0-0Hammarby FF6 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026

What these results say

  • HNK Hajduk Split scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for HNK Hajduk Split had three goals or more.
  • HNK Hajduk Split conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

HNK Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
13HNK Hajduk SplitUEFA Europa Conference League320132+16
16Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa1440102331-812

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: UEFA Europa Conference League · Ekstraklasa

Leading scorers: HNK Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa

HNK Hajduk Split

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Raków Częstochowa

GoalsAssists

  • P. Makuch81

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Hajduk Split and Raków Częstochowa drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Raków Częstochowa at 44% and given a draw 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: M. Sego 21' for HNK Hajduk Split, M. Emreli 27' for Raków Częstochowa, D. de Almeida 47' for HNK Hajduk Split, L. Diaby-Fadiga 90' for Raków Częstochowa. Sent off: Adrion Pajaziti (HNK Hajduk Split) 55'.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.