27 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Miejski Stadion Pilkarski Rakow
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Raków Częstochowa 2-3 HNK Hajduk Split.

Before kick-off the model made it 61% Raków Częstochowa, 21% draw, 18% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

The tie

Second leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League Playoff round tie. First leg: HNK Hajduk Split 2–2 Raków Częstochowa (20 Aug) →

HNK Hajduk Split went through 5–4 on aggregate.

Has the model earned this number?

Raków Częstochowa at 61%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Raków Częstochowa6%Draw91%HNK Hajduk Split3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

1'
⚽R. Raciassist: D. de Almeida
3'
•Ron Raçi
🔁E. Otienoout: J. C. Silva
49'
Michael Ameyaw
51'
51'
Niko Sigur
⚽L. Diaby-Fadiga (pen)
60'
62'
Mathieu Acapandié
66'
⚽M. Segoassist: M. Soticek
70'
🔁A. Sanyangout: A. Sutalo
🔁K. Struskiout: V. Kochergin
71'
71'
🔁M. Acapandieout: D. Melnjak
71'
🔁D. de Almeidaout: A. del Moral
79'
🔁M. Soticekout: A. Huram
🔁P. Makuchout: A. Molnar
84'
🔁M. Ameyawout: I. Brusberg
84'
⚽M. Emreli
88'
Mahir Emreli
89'
🔁F. Tudorout: A. Brorsson
91'
91'
🔁M. Segoout: M. Livaja
94'
⚽R. Pukstasassist: D. Maresic
96'
🔁D. Maresicout: A. Van Hoorenbeeck
🔁L. Diaby-Fadigaout: O. Kwiatkowski
105'

Match stats — Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split

68%Possession32%
20Shots12
5On target4
5Corners4

Line-ups

Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3
  • 1K. TrelowskiG
  • 7F. TudorD
  • 25B. RacovitanD
  • 4S. SvarnasD
  • 19M. AmeyawM
  • 6O. RepkaM
  • 23K. StruskiM
  • 26E. OtienoM
  • 80L. Diaby-FadigaF
  • 11M. EmreliF
  • 9P. MakuchF
Substitutes
  • 71T. KaricG
  • 29W. ZolneczkoG
  • 2J. NapierajD
  • 3A. BrorssonD
  • 77D. G. Debohi
  • 10V. KocherginM
  • 21T. PienkoM
  • 17J. JendrykaM
  • 20J. C. SilvaM
Coach: Dawid Kroczek
HNK Hajduk Split 4-2-3-1
  • 33T. SilicG
  • 22M. AcapandieD
  • 15D. MaresicD
  • 14R. RaciD
  • 32S. HrgovicD
  • 8N. SigurM
  • 21R. PukstasM
  • 7A. SanyangM
  • 9D. de AlmeidaM
  • 23M. SoticekM
  • 11M. SegoF
Substitutes
  • 44D. StipicaG
  • 1I. IvusicG
  • 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
  • 17D. MelnjakD
  • 36M. SkelinD
  • 38L. HodakD
  • 20A. del MoralM
  • 26A. HuramM
  • 19E. BrrutiM
Coach: Gonzalo Garcia

Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split

Raków Częstochowa

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split20 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Hammarby FF13 August 2026
  • L2-3Zaglebie Lubin9 August 2026
  • D0-0Hammarby FF6 August 2026

HNK Hajduk Split

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0NK Osijek23 August 2026
  • D2-2Raków Częstochowa20 August 2026
  • W2-1away to HNK Gorica16 August 2026
  • W4-0FK Zalgiris Vilnius13 August 2026
  • D2-2Istra 19619 August 2026

What these results say

  • Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Raków Częstochowa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • HNK Hajduk Split scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for HNK Hajduk Split had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Raków Częstochowa and HNK Hajduk Split in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
16Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa1440102331-812
13HNK Hajduk SplitUEFA Europa Conference League320132+16

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ekstraklasa · UEFA Europa Conference League

Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split

  • 20 August 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–2 Raków CzęstochowaUEFA Europa Conference League

Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.

Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and HNK Hajduk Split

Raków Częstochowa

GoalsAssists

  • P. Makuch81

HNK Hajduk Split

No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

HNK Hajduk Split won 3–2 at Raków Częstochowa. The model had leaned towards a win for Raków Częstochowa at 61% and given a win for HNK Hajduk Split 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: R. Raci 1' for HNK Hajduk Split, L. Diaby-Fadiga (penalty) 60' for Raków Częstochowa, M. Sego 66' for HNK Hajduk Split, M. Emreli 88' for Raków Częstochowa, R. Pukstas 94' for HNK Hajduk Split.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.