VfL Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: VfL Wolfsburg 4-4 Energie Cottbus.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% VfL Wolfsburg, 26% draw, 20% Energie Cottbus — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
VfL Wolfsburg at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 8 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — VfL Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30J. ZielinskiG
- 2K. FischerD
- 6H. WahlD
- 22M. AngelyD
- 21J. MaehleD
- 27M. ArnoldM
- 5Vini SouzaM
- 37E. RexhbecajM
- 17A. BernhardssonF
- 19R. GlatzelF
- 11F. ReeseF
- 12P. PervanG
- 18J. AdjeteyD
- 33CleitonD
- 31Y. GerhardtM
- 32M. SvanbergM
- 20M. DamarM
- 14P. HenselM
- 23A. BesioF
- 7K. ShiogaiF
- 1M. LotkaG
- 21L. ErleinD
- 2K. ManuD
- 23F. DoumbiaD
- 20A. BorgmannD
- 8L. MichelbrinkM
- 32L. BittencourtM
- 3H. RorigM
- 9L. CopadoM
- 31J. ButlerM
- 10T. CigerciF
- 29K. KratzschG
- 42J. ZaydanD
- 16R. MaloneD
- 4T. CampulkaD
- 5D. PelivanM
- 19J. BoziarisM
- 11M. HannemannF
- 7C. KinsombiM
- 13D. BogdanovF
Form going into VfL Wolfsburg vs Energie Cottbus
VfL Wolfsburg
All competitions we cover
- W5-2away to Karlsruher SC29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hannover 9616 August 2026
- D0-01. FC Kaiserslautern8 August 2026
Energie Cottbus
All competitions we cover
- L3-4SpVgg Greuther Fürth29 August 2026
- L0-3away to Arminia Bielefeld16 August 2026
- W3-1Hannover 969 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 16 | +10 | 19 |
| 12 | Energie Cottbus | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: VfL Wolfsburg and Energie Cottbus
VfL Wolfsburg
GoalsAssists
- F. Reese57
- R. Glatzel51
- A. Bernhardsson43
Energie Cottbus
GoalsAssists
- T. Ciğerci52
- J. Butler51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
VfL Wolfsburg and Energie Cottbus drew 4–4. The model had leaned towards a win for VfL Wolfsburg at 54% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: R. Glatzel (penalty) 4' for VfL Wolfsburg, Vini Souza 25' for VfL Wolfsburg, R. Glatzel 34' for VfL Wolfsburg, L. Erlein 45' for Energie Cottbus, K. Manu 49' for Energie Cottbus, T. Cigerci (penalty) 67' for Energie Cottbus, M. Svanberg 79' for VfL Wolfsburg, D. Bogdanov 90' for Energie Cottbus. Sent off: Mathys Angely (VfL Wolfsburg) 88'. On expected goals it finished 3.82–3.05.