8 November 2026, 00:00 UTC

Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result

Shell Energy Stadium, Houston
Referee: Allen Chapman
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Houston Dynamo 0-1 St. Louis City.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Houston Dynamo, 28% draw, 34% St. Louis City — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Houston Dynamo at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Houston Dynamo4%Draw92%St. Louis City4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Arturout: Ibrahim Aliyu
63'
🔁Lawrence Ennaliout: Héctor Herrera
63'
65'
🔁Tomas Ostrakout: Alexandru Măţan
🔁Lyle Fosterout: Duncan McGuire
70'
🔁Felipe·De Andrade Vieiraout: Duane Holmes
70'
74'
🔁Sang-bin Jungout: Simon Becher
Lucas Halter
82'
82'
🔁Rafael Navarro Lealout: Damion Downs
82'
🔁Dante Polvaraout: Daniel Edelman
🔁Agustín Bouzatout: Nick Markanich
89'
90+7'
⚽Lukas MacNaughtonassist: Alexandru Măţan

Match stats — Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City

41%Possession59%
23Shots13
6On target1
9Corners3
1.35xG0.89

Goals against chances

Houston Dynamo0 from 1.35 xGless than the chances were worth
St. Louis City1 from 0.89 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Houston Dynamo 4-1-4-1
  • 31J. BondG
  • 36Felipe AndradeD
  • 5Lucas HalterD
  • 34A. ReschD
  • 21F. NegriD
  • 6ArturM
  • 11L. EnnaliM
  • 19M. BoguszM
  • 30A. BouzatM
  • 20GuilhermeM
  • 9L. FosterF
Substitutes
  • 24A. IbrahimF
  • 3Antônio CarlosD
  • 26B. GillinghamG
  • 16H. HerreraM
  • 14D. HolmesM
  • 17N. MarkanichF
  • 23D. McGuireF
  • 37G. RiveraM
  • 18D. SamassékouM
Coach: Ben Olsen
St. Louis City 3-4-3
  • 39B. LundtG
  • 5L. MacNaughtonD
  • 32T. BaumgartlD
  • 27F. FallD
  • 6C. WallemM
  • 21D. PolvaraM
  • 8C. DurkinM
  • 14T. TotlandM
  • 77Jeong Sang-BinF
  • 9Rafael NavarroF
  • 7T. OstrákF
Substitutes
  • 11S. BecherF
  • 18C. BrunetM
  • 42D. DownsF
  • 24D. EdelmanM
  • 23A. MățanM
  • 4M. FallD
  • 31C. OlivaresG
  • 99J. OrozcoD
  • 91Z. ZengueM
Coach: Y. Damet

Form going into Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City

Houston Dynamo

Major League Soccer

  • L1-3away to Portland Timbers2 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Seattle Sounders29 October 2026
  • D0-0Minnesota United FC25 October 2026
  • D2-2FC Dallas18 October 2026

St. Louis City

Major League Soccer

  • L0-1San Diego31 October 2026
  • L2-3Portland Timbers29 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Real Salt Lake25 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Minnesota United FC17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Houston Dynamo failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Houston Dynamo scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • St. Louis City did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • St. Louis City conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for St. Louis City had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Houston Dynamo34149114343051
3St. Louis City34159105948+1154

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City

  • 23 August 2026St. Louis City 2–1 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 20 May 2026St. Louis City 2–2 Houston DynamoUS Open Cup
  • 31 August 2025St. Louis City 2–3 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 29 June 2025Houston Dynamo 1–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
  • 6 October 2024St. Louis City 3–0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
  • 5 May 2024Houston Dynamo 0–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City

Houston Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • Guilherme168

St. Louis City

GoalsAssists

  • Rafael Navarro196

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

St. Louis City won 1–0 at Houston Dynamo. The model had leaned towards a win for Houston Dynamo at 38% and given a win for St. Louis City 34%. The goal: Lukas MacNaughton 90+7' for St. Louis City. On expected goals it finished 1.35–0.89.

How the call on Houston Dynamo v St. Louis City has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 36% / 28% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Houston Dynamo's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Houston Dynamo win38%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. St. Louis City win34%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.