8 November 2026, 00:00 UTC

San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer prediction & result

Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego
Referee: Ramy Touchan
Full time0 – 1

Final score: San Diego 0-1 Sporting Kansas City.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% San Diego, 20% draw, 20% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 1.67, 5.00 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

San Diego at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

San Diego0%Draw8%Sporting Kansas City92%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
🔁Taylor Calheiraout: Ruben Ramos Jr
Marcus Ingvartsen
57'
🔁Pedro somaout: Jeppe Tverskov
58'
🔁Alejandro Alvarado Jrout: Gabriel Pirani
59'
🔁Bryan Zambléout: Amahl Pellegrino
59'
61'
Lasse Berg Johnsen
Manu Duah
67'
69'
🔁Lasse Berg Johnsenout: Justin Reynolds
🔁Onni Valakariout: David Mimbang
69'
🔁Marcus Ingvartsenout: David Vazquez
69'
70'
Justin Reynolds
Christopher McVey
72'
76'
⚽André Luiz (pen)
87'
🔁Osvaldo Pedro Capembaout: Jayden Reid
88'
🔁Stephen Afrifaout: Shapi Suleymanov

Match stats — San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City

67%Possession33%
17Shots15
4On target7
8Corners4
0.85xG1.98

Goals against chances

San Diego0 from 0.85 xGless than the chances were worth
Sporting Kansas City1 from 1.98 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

San Diego 4-3-3
  • 13P. SisniegaG
  • 3D. Þór­halls­sonD
  • 97C. McVeyD
  • 26M. DuahD
  • 5Kieran SargeantD
  • 70A. AlvaradoM
  • 15P. SomaM
  • 8O. ValakariM
  • 10A. DreyerF
  • 7M. IngvartsenF
  • 14B. B. ZambleF
Substitutes
  • 36David MimbangM
  • 1C. dos SantosG
  • 12Gabriel PiraniM
  • 20A. GodoyM
  • 90A. PellegrinoF
  • 25I. PilcherD
  • 6J. TverskovM
  • 19D. VazquezM
  • 33O. VerhoevenD
Coach: Mikey Varas
Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
  • 30S. ClevelandG
  • 8J. DavisD
  • 15Jansen MillerD
  • 28Wyatt MeyerD
  • 18E. KarićD
  • 11André LuizM
  • 4L. JohnsenM
  • 33O. WolffM
  • 7CapitaM
  • 19T. CalheiraF
  • 17S. AfrifaF
Substitutes
  • 23E. BartlowD
  • 93M. SuleymanovF
  • 13J. ReynoldsD
  • 99J. ReidD
  • 24R. RamosF
  • 1J. PulskampG
  • 2I. JamesD
  • 61Z. Loyo ReynagaM
Coach: R. Wicky

Form going into San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City

San Diego

Major League Soccer

  • W1-0away to St. Louis City31 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Vancouver Whitecaps29 October 2026
  • D2-2Seattle Sounders25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Los Angeles Galaxy18 October 2026

Sporting Kansas City

Major League Soccer

  • D1-1FC Dallas31 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Minnesota United FC29 October 2026
  • L1-2Austin25 October 2026
  • L1-3Real Salt Lake18 October 2026

What these results say

  • San Diego scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • San Diego failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • San Diego conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Sporting Kansas City did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Sporting Kansas City scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Sporting Kansas City conceded in every one of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13San Diego34911145763-638
15Sporting Kansas City3475224081-4126

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City

  • 8 March 2026Sporting Kansas City 0–1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
  • 10 August 2025Sporting Kansas City 0–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
  • 18 May 2025San Diego 0–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Sporting Kansas City won 1–0 at San Diego. The model had leaned towards a win for San Diego at 60% and given a win for Sporting Kansas City 20%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goal: André Luiz (penalty) 76' for Sporting Kansas City. On expected goals it finished 0.85–1.98.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave San Diego a 76.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 67.4% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 100.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 100.0%, 23.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.