8 November 2026, 00:00 UTC

Austin vs Portland Timbers Major League Soccer prediction & result

Q2 Stadium, Austin
Referee: Victor Rivas
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Austin 0-2 Portland Timbers.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Austin, 25% draw, 39% Portland Timbers — fair odds of 2.78, 4.00 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Portland Timbers at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Austin0%Draw1%Portland Timbers99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Ariel Lassiterassist: Vincent Janssen
45'
🔁Eric Izoitaout: Cole Bassett
Micah Burton
57'
🔁Oleksandr Svatokout: Przemyslaw Płacheta
64'
70'
⚽Kristoffer Veldeassist: Ian Smith
🔁Micah Burtonout: Myrto Uzuni
71'
🔁Mikkel Deslerout: Brendan Hines-Ike
71'
77'
🔁Ian Smithout: Jímer Fory
77'
🔁Vincent Janssenout: Alexander Aravena
82'
🔁Ariel Lassiterout: Omir Fernandez
🔁Jorge Alastueyout: Besard Sabovic
84'
89'
🔁Kristoffer Veldeout: Diego Chará

Match stats — Austin vs Portland Timbers

58%Possession42%
16Shots9
7On target4
5Corners5
0.68xG0.42

Goals against chances

Austin0 from 0.68 xGless than the chances were worth
Portland Timbers2 from 0.42 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Austin 3-4-3
  • 1B. StuverG
  • 5O. SvatokD
  • 6Ilie SánchezD
  • 29Guilherme BiroD
  • 3M. DeslerM
  • 38Ervin TorresM
  • 24Jorge AlastueyM
  • 17J. GallagherM
  • 32M. BurtonF
  • 9B. VázquezF
  • 21C. RamirezF
Substitutes
  • 35M. ĐorđevićD
  • 4B. Hines-IkeD
  • 12D. LasG
  • 77P. PłachetaM
  • 30J. RosalesM
  • 14B. ŠabovićM
  • 2R. ThomasD
  • 11F. TorresF
  • 10M. UzuniF
Coach: D. Arnaud
Portland Timbers 4-3-3
  • 41J. PantemisG
  • 12R. HernándezD
  • 20F. SurmanD
  • 2J. WatermanD
  • 23Ian SmithD
  • 73Eric IzoitaM
  • 30J. CaicedoM
  • 10David Pereira da CostaM
  • 7A. LassiterF
  • 14V. JanssenF
  • 99K. VeldeF
Substitutes
  • 26H. SulteG
  • 80J. OrtizM
  • 4K. MillerD
  • 15E. MillerD
  • 27J. ForyM
  • 22O. FernandezF
  • 21D. CharáM
  • 17C. BassettM
  • 28A. AravenaF
Coach: Martí Cifuentes

Form going into Austin vs Portland Timbers

Austin

Major League Soccer

  • L1-4away to Los Angeles Galaxy31 October 2026
  • L1-2Real Salt Lake29 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Sporting Kansas City25 October 2026
  • L1-2Vancouver Whitecaps18 October 2026

Portland Timbers

Major League Soccer

  • W3-1Houston Dynamo2 November 2026
  • W3-2away to St. Louis City29 October 2026
  • W3-2Charlotte25 October 2026
  • D0-0Colorado Rapids18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Austin scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Austin conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Austin had three goals or more.
  • Portland Timbers went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Portland Timbers won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Portland Timbers scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Austin34810164265-2334
7Portland Timbers34137146261+146

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Austin vs Portland Timbers

  • 30 August 2026Portland Timbers 1–2 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 5 April 2025Austin 0–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 2 March 2025Portland Timbers 1–0 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 3 October 2024Portland Timbers 0–1 AustinMajor League Soccer
  • 30 May 2024Austin 0–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
  • 18 September 2023Austin 1–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer

The result against the call

Portland Timbers won 2–0 at Austin. The model had made a win for Portland Timbers its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Ariel Lassiter 3' for Portland Timbers, Kristoffer Velde 70' for Portland Timbers. On expected goals it finished 0.68–0.42.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Portland Timbers a 65.5% chance to finish in the top nine: 99.9% after a win, 87.2% after a draw, 16.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 99.9%, 34.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Austin v Portland Timbers has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 41% / 25% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 36% / 25% / 39%: the biggest move is Austin's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Austin win36%▼ −5
  2. Draw25%=
  3. Portland Timbers win39%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.