Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Minnesota United FC 3-1 San Jose Earthquakes.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Minnesota United FC, 24% draw, 30% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Minnesota United FC at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12D. CallenderG
- 52Cherrion ValeriusD
- 28J. DíazD
- 23M. DugganD
- 13A. MarkanichD
- 8T. ChancalayM
- 25N. TriantisM
- 30O. GeneM
- 18M. GonzalezM
- 26J. PereyraF
- 9K. YeboahF
- 22Marcus CaldeiraF
- 3K. DuncanD
- 67C. HarveyM
- 21B. HlongwaneF
- 15M. BoxallD
- 16A. JacksonM
- 11M. MaloneF
- 1A. SmirG
- 6P. StroudM
- 1A. GunnG
- 28B. KikanovicD
- 5D. MunieD
- 18R. RobertsD
- 2J. RickettsD
- 14R. VieiraM
- 23E. LöwenM
- 7O. BoudaM
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 11T. WernerM
- 19P. JuddF
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 20N. FernandezM
- 6I. HarkesM
- 17Jack JasinskiD
- 9L. JovanovićF
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 3P. MarieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 87Vítor CostaD
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United FC
Major League Soccer
- W3-1away to Los Angeles FC2 November 2026
- W3-1Sporting Kansas City29 October 2026
- D0-0away to Houston Dynamo25 October 2026
- W3-2St. Louis City17 October 2026
San Jose Earthquakes
Major League Soccer
- W2-1Real Salt Lake31 October 2026
- D2-2Colorado Rapids29 October 2026
- L0-3away to FC Dallas25 October 2026
- D1-1Nashville SC18 October 2026
What these results say
- Minnesota United FC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Minnesota United FC won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Minnesota United FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- San Jose Earthquakes scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 56 | 58 | -2 | 44 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 57 | 51 | +6 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
- 23 August 2026San Jose Earthquakes 1–5 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 29 April 2026San Jose Earthquakes 4–2 Minnesota United FCUS Open Cup
- 13 July 2025Minnesota United FC 4–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- 9 March 2025San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 1 September 2024San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 21 July 2024Minnesota United FC 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes
Minnesota United FC
GoalsAssists
- K. Yeboah184
San Jose Earthquakes
GoalsAssists
- P. Judd172
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Minnesota United FC beat San Jose Earthquakes 3–1. The model had made a win for Minnesota United FC its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Preston Judd 45' for San Jose Earthquakes, Tomás Chancalay 57' for Minnesota United FC, Angus Gunn (own goal) 82' for Minnesota United FC, Nectarios Triantis 90+4' for Minnesota United FC. On expected goals it finished 1.15–1.23.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Minnesota United FC a 23.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 0.0% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 70.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 23.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 43% / 25% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 24% / 30%: the biggest move is Minnesota United FC's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Minnesota United FC win46%▲ +3
- Draw24%▼ −1
- San Jose Earthquakes win30%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.