8 November 2026, 00:00 UTC

FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids Major League Soccer prediction & result

Toyota Stadium, Frisco
Referee: Drew Fischer
Full time3 – 1

Final score: FC Dallas 3-1 Colorado Rapids.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% FC Dallas, 26% draw, 26% Colorado Rapids — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Dallas at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Dallas97%Draw3%Colorado Rapids0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

37'
Noah Cobb
45'
🔁Hamzat Ojediranout: Georgi Minoungou
45'
🔁Sayed Abu Farkhiout: Darren Yapi
47'
⚽Morgan Whittakerassist: Georgi Minoungou
🔁Sebastien Ibeaghaout: nolan norris
57'
🔁Bernard Kamungoout: Ran Binyamin
67'
🔁Daniel Jobout: Santiago Moreno
67'
⚽Joaquín Valiente Cioliassist: Kaick da Silva Ferreira
75'
🔁Herman Johanssonout: Samuel Sarver
75'
🔁Joaquín Valiente Cioliout: Logan Farrington
76'
81'
Matthew Elliott Wells
83'
🔁Paxten Aaronsonout: Theodore Ku-DiPietro
83'
🔁Joshua Atencioout: Youssef Maziz
83'
🔁Noah Cobbout: Donavan Phillip
⚽Kaick da Silva Ferreiraassist: nolan norris
88'
⚽Santiago Morenoassist: Logan Farrington
90+2'
90+5'
Kosi Thompson

Match stats — FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids

51%Possession49%
27Shots6
10On target1
6Corners4
3.72xG0.73

Goals against chances

FC Dallas3 from 3.72 xGless than the chances were worth
Colorado Rapids1 from 0.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Dallas 4-4-2
  • 42DanielG
  • 14H. JohanssonD
  • 25S. IbeaghaD
  • 3O. UrhoghideD
  • 18S. MooreD
  • 21J. ValienteM
  • 55KaickM
  • 17RamiroM
  • 77B. KamungoM
  • 7D. JobF
  • 9P. MusaF
Substitutes
  • 5L. AbubakarD
  • 6R. BinyaminM
  • 12C. CappisM
  • 8P. DelgadoM
  • 23L. FarringtonF
  • 10S. MorenoF
  • 32N. NorrisD
  • 28Samuel SarverF
  • 40J. SiroisG
Coach: Eric Quill
Colorado Rapids 4-2-3-1
  • 41N. DefreitasG
  • 33K. ThompsonD
  • 24N. CobbD
  • 5Loïc WilliamsD
  • 29M. NavarroD
  • 12J. AtencioM
  • 8H. OjediranM
  • 13W. Frederick IIM
  • 7M. WhittakerM
  • 10P. AaronsonM
  • 9S. AbuF
Substitutes
  • 88Y. MazizM
  • 93G. MinoungouF
  • 32D. PhillipF
  • 2K. RosenberryD
  • 99J. TravisD
  • 77D. YapiF
  • 6R. HoldingD
  • 31A. BeaudryG
  • 21T. Ku-DiPietroM
Coach: Matt Wells

Form going into FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids

FC Dallas

Major League Soccer

  • D1-1away to Sporting Kansas City31 October 2026
  • L0-2Columbus Crew29 October 2026
  • W3-0San Jose Earthquakes25 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Houston Dynamo18 October 2026

Colorado Rapids

Major League Soccer

  • L2-4Chicago Fire1 November 2026
  • D2-2away to San Jose Earthquakes29 October 2026
  • W1-0Vancouver Whitecaps25 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Portland Timbers18 October 2026

What these results say

  • FC Dallas failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Dallas scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • FC Dallas conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Colorado Rapids failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Colorado Rapids scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2FC Dallas34161086251+1158
12Colorado Rapids34127154750-343

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids

  • 24 May 2026Colorado Rapids 1–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 21 September 2025FC Dallas 3–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 2 March 2025Colorado Rapids 3–3 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 1 September 2024FC Dallas 2–3 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer
  • 21 April 2024Colorado Rapids 2–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
  • 15 October 2023FC Dallas 1–1 Colorado RapidsMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: FC Dallas and Colorado Rapids

FC Dallas

GoalsAssists

  • P. Musa225

Colorado Rapids

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 47 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

FC Dallas beat Colorado Rapids 3–1. The model had made a win for FC Dallas its most likely outcome, at 48%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Morgan Whittaker 47' for Colorado Rapids, Joaquín Valiente Cioli 75' for FC Dallas, Kaick da Silva Ferreira 88' for FC Dallas, Santiago Moreno 90+2' for FC Dallas. On expected goals it finished 3.72–0.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Colorado Rapids a 43.4% chance to finish in the top nine: 99.8% after a win, 68.4% after a draw, 8.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.8%, 34.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Major League Soccer season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.