Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Hradec Králové 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Hradec Králové, 33% draw, 29% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 2.63, 3.03 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hradec Králové at 38% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12Adam ZadražilG
- 7Jakub UhrinčaťD
- 5Filip ČihákD
- 25František ČechD
- 2David LudvicekM
- 16Vladimír DaridaM
- 9Matěj ValentaM
- 26Daniel HorákM
- 24Abdullahi UmarF
- 10Mick van BurenF
- 19Tom SlončíkF
- 11Samuel DancákM
- 17Ondřej MihálikF
- 27Daniel TrubačM
- 6Elione Fernandes NetoM
- 1Patrik VízekG
- 20Matyas VagnerG
- 22Stepan PonikelskyM
- 77Lucas KubrM
- 18Marko RegžaF
- 23Martin JedličkaG
- 44Yevgeniy SkybaD
- 37Matěj ChalušD
- 42Jiri MicekD
- 34Abdullahi BeweneM
- 83Roan NoghaM
- 18David PlankaM
- 99Vlasiy SinyavskiyM
- 21Michal KohútF
- 28Filip KubalaF
- 12Abdallah GningF
- 8Aboubacar TraoreM
- 95Daniel HolzerM
- 22Vit SkrkonF
- 55Artúr MusákM
- 7Dantaye GilbertM
- 1Viktor BudinskýG
- 17Michal FrydrychD
- 6Karel PojeznýD
- 16Maksym DiachukD
Form going into Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava
Hradec Králové
- L0-1Beşiktaş6 August 2026
- D0-0away to Bohemians 19052 August 2026
- W3-1Tromso30 July 2026
- W2-1Pardubice26 July 2026
- W1-0away to Tromso23 July 2026
Baník Ostrava
- L0-4Slavia Praha1 August 2026
- W1-0away to Zlin25 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hradec Králové | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 14 |
| 12 | Baník Ostrava | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hradec Králové vs Baník Ostrava
- 9 August 2026Hradec Králové 2–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 14 March 2026Hradec Králové 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 4 March 2026Hradec Králové 0–0 Baník OstravaCup
- 19 October 2025Baník Ostrava 0–1 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
- 8 December 2024Hradec Králové 0–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 11 August 2024Baník Ostrava 1–0 Hradec KrálovéCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Hradec Králové and Baník Ostrava
Hradec Králové
- T. Slončík3 goals
Baník Ostrava
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.