Hull City vs Aston Villa Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Hull City 0-0 Aston Villa.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Hull City, 29% draw, 32% Aston Villa — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hull City at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hull City vs Aston Villa
Line-ups
- 19K. TzolakisG
- 2L. CoyleD
- 6S. AjayiD
- 15J. EganD
- 32N. MendyD
- 3R. GilesD
- 10M. BelloumiM
- 27R. SlaterM
- 29L. Gourna-DouathM
- 21E. StroudM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 50M. ChoF
- 47R. VazF
- 36C. MouzakitisM
- 18B. Norton-CuffyD
- 7S. ThomasF
- 14J. Hjertø-DahlM
- 23M. TargettD
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 12D. PhillipsG
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 2M. CashD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5T. MingsD
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 8B. KamaraM
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 53George HemmingsM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 18T. AbrahamF
- 47Alysson EdwardF
- 17A. GarnachoF
- 40M. BizotG
- 13M. RuggeriD
- 14Pau TorresD
- 29A. Wan-BissakaD
- 19I. MbayeF
- 26L. BogardeM
Form going into Hull City vs Aston Villa
Hull City
- W1-0away to Coventry29 August 2026
- W2-0Manchester United22 August 2026
Aston Villa
- L0-1Arsenal31 August 2026
- L0-4away to Brighton23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hull City | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hull City vs Aston Villa
- 5 September 2026Hull City 0–0 Aston VillaPremier League
- 19 January 2019Aston Villa 2–2 Hull CityChampionship
- 6 August 2018Hull City 1–3 Aston VillaChampionship
- 31 March 2018Hull City 0–0 Aston VillaChampionship
- 5 August 2017Aston Villa 1–1 Hull CityChampionship
- 10 February 2015Hull City 2–0 Aston VillaPremier League
Leading scorers: Hull City and Aston Villa
Hull City
- M. Belloumi2 goals1 assists
Aston Villa
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.