5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Brighton vs Leeds Premier League prediction & result

Amex Stadium, Brighton
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Brighton 1-1 Leeds.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Brighton, 28% draw, 26% Leeds — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Brighton at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Brighton5%Draw92%Leeds3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Jayden Bogle
15'
⚽Jayden Bogleassist: Ao Tanaka
Pascal Groß
38'
Maxim De Cuyper
49'
61'
🔁Jayden Bogleout: Jaka Bijol
62'
🔁Noah Okaforout: Brenden Aaronson
64'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
⚽Luka Vuskovicassist: Maxim De Cuyper
71'
73'
🔁Ao Tanakaout: Harry Wilson
73'
🔁Dominic Calvert-Lewinout: Lukas Nmecha
🔁Maxim De Cuyperout: Promise David
77'
🔁Ferdi Kadıoğluout: Costinha
78'
85'
Harry Wilson
Promise David
88'
🔁Olivier Boscagliout: Pascal Struijk
90+3'

Match stats — Brighton vs Leeds

67%Possession33%
20Shots10
5On target5
7Corners6

Line-ups

Brighton 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. VerbruggenG
  • 24F. KadıoğluD
  • 44L. VuškovićD
  • 5L. DunkD
  • 21O. BoscagliD
  • 13P. GroßM
  • 26Y. AyariM
  • 25D. GómezM
  • 35M. YalcouyéM
  • 29M. De CuyperM
  • 19C. KostoulasF
Substitutes
  • 23J. SteeleG
  • 3J. HadjamD
  • 4P. StruijkD
  • 20CostinhaD
  • 14José María Andrés BaixauliM
  • 15I. OsmanF
  • 33M. O'RileyM
  • 12P. DavidF
  • 49N. OriolaM
Coach: F. Hürzeler
Leeds 3-5-2
  • 1J. TraffordG
  • 24J. JustinD
  • 30N. ElvediD
  • 5T. MuharemovićD
  • 2J. BogleM
  • 18A. StachM
  • 4E. AmpaduM
  • 22A. TanakaM
  • 3G. GudmundssonM
  • 9D. Calvert-LewinF
  • 19N. OkaforF
Substitutes
  • 11B. AaronsonM
  • 10H. WilsonF
  • 7D. JamesF
  • 8S. LongstaffM
  • 15J. BijolD
  • 26M. BardD
  • 16M. ZettererG
  • 23J. BahoyaF
  • 14L. NmechaF
Coach: D. Farke

Form going into Brighton vs Leeds

Brighton

All competitions we cover

  • L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
  • W4-0Tromso27 August 2026
  • W4-0Aston Villa23 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Tromso20 August 2026

Leeds

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1Brentford30 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Nottingham Forest22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Brighton scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Brighton kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Brighton had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Brighton10712267+1922
9Leeds10352108+214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Brighton vs Leeds

  • 17 May 2026Leeds 1–0 BrightonPremier League
  • 1 November 2025Brighton 3–0 LeedsPremier League
  • 11 March 2023Leeds 2–2 BrightonPremier League
  • 27 August 2022Brighton 1–0 LeedsPremier League
  • 15 May 2022Leeds 1–1 BrightonPremier League

The full Brighton vs Leeds record →

Leading scorers: Brighton and Leeds

Brighton

GoalsAssists

  • P. Groß44
  • C. Kostoulas32

Leeds

GoalsAssists

  • D. Calvert-Lewin31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Brighton and Leeds drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Brighton at 46% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jayden Bogle 15' for Leeds, Luka Vuskovic 71' for Brighton.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.