5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Brighton vs Leeds Premier League prediction & result

Amex Stadium, Brighton
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Brighton 1-1 Leeds.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Brighton, 28% draw, 26% Leeds — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Brighton at 46% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Brighton5%Draw92%Leeds3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
Jayden Bogle
15'
⚽Jayden Bogleassist: Ao Tanaka
Pascal Groß
38'
Maxim De Cuyper
49'
61'
🔁Jayden Bogleout: Jaka Bijol
62'
🔁Noah Okaforout: Brenden Aaronson
64'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
⚽Luka Vuskovicassist: Maxim De Cuyper
71'
73'
🔁Ao Tanakaout: Harry Wilson
73'
🔁Dominic Calvert-Lewinout: Lukas Nmecha
🔁Maxim De Cuyperout: Promise David
77'
🔁Ferdi Kadıoğluout: Costinha
78'
85'
Harry Wilson
Promise David
88'
🔁Olivier Boscagliout: Pascal Struijk
90+3'

Match stats — Brighton vs Leeds

67%Possession33%
20Shots10
5On target5
7Corners6

Line-ups

Brighton 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. VerbruggenG
  • 24F. KadıoğluD
  • 44L. VuškovićD
  • 5L. DunkD
  • 21O. BoscagliD
  • 13P. GroßM
  • 26Y. AyariM
  • 25D. GómezM
  • 35M. YalcouyéM
  • 29M. De CuyperM
  • 19C. KostoulasF
Substitutes
  • 23J. SteeleG
  • 3J. HadjamD
  • 4P. StruijkD
  • 20CostinhaD
  • 14José María Andrés BaixauliM
  • 15I. OsmanF
  • 33M. O'RileyM
  • 12P. DavidF
  • 49N. OriolaM
Coach: F. Hürzeler
Leeds 3-5-2
  • 1J. TraffordG
  • 24J. JustinD
  • 30N. ElvediD
  • 5T. MuharemovićD
  • 2J. BogleM
  • 18A. StachM
  • 4E. AmpaduM
  • 22A. TanakaM
  • 3G. GudmundssonM
  • 9D. Calvert-LewinF
  • 19N. OkaforF
Substitutes
  • 11B. AaronsonM
  • 10H. WilsonF
  • 7D. JamesF
  • 8S. LongstaffM
  • 15J. BijolD
  • 26M. BardD
  • 16M. ZettererG
  • 23J. BahoyaF
  • 14L. NmechaF
Coach: D. Farke

Form going into Brighton vs Leeds

Brighton

  • L3-4away to Chelsea30 August 2026
  • W4-0Aston Villa23 August 2026

Leeds

  • D1-1Brentford30 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Nottingham Forest22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Brighton4211135+87
3Leeds422073+48

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Brighton vs Leeds

  • 5 September 2026Brighton 1–1 LeedsPremier League
  • 17 May 2026Leeds 1–0 BrightonPremier League
  • 1 November 2025Brighton 3–0 LeedsPremier League
  • 11 March 2023Leeds 2–2 BrightonPremier League
  • 27 August 2022Brighton 1–0 LeedsPremier League
  • 15 May 2022Leeds 1–1 BrightonPremier League

Leading scorers: Brighton and Leeds

Brighton

  • M. Yalcouyé2 goals

Leeds

  • D. Calvert-Lewin2 goals1 assists
  • J. Bogle2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.