Brentford vs Sunderland Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Brentford 1-1 Sunderland.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Brentford, 28% draw, 27% Sunderland — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Brentford at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brentford vs Sunderland
Line-ups
- 1C. KelleherG
- 33M. KayodeD
- 20K. AjerD
- 22N. CollinsD
- 23K. Lewis-PotterD
- 18M. SangaréM
- 27V. JaneltM
- 11D. OuattaraM
- 24M. DamsgaardM
- 7K. SchadeM
- 9ThiagoF
- 14Fábio CarvalhoM
- 13C. WilsonF
- 19J. AnthonyF
- 6Y. YarmolyukM
- 44Jannik SchusterD
- 25E. DioufD
- 3R. HenryD
- 2A. HickeyD
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
- 22R. RoefsG
- 20N. MukieleD
- 4K. DansoD
- 5D. BallardD
- 17ReinildoD
- 34G. XhakaM
- 27N. SadikiM
- 12T. MeunierM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 18W. IsidorF
- 39M. FofanaF
- 11C. RiggM
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 6D. MethalieD
- 15O. AldereteD
- 13L. O'NienM
- 32T. HumeD
- 31M. EllborgG
Form going into Brentford vs Sunderland
Brentford
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Leeds30 August 2026
- W3-0Tottenham22 August 2026
Sunderland
All competitions we cover
- W1-0Fulham30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Brentford | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 14 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brentford vs Sunderland
- 7 January 2026Brentford 3–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 30 August 2025Sunderland 2–1 BrentfordPremier League
- 17 February 2018Sunderland 0–2 BrentfordChampionship
- 21 October 2017Brentford 3–3 SunderlandChampionship
Leading scorers: Brentford and Sunderland
Brentford
GoalsAssists
- K. Schade30
Sunderland
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Brentford and Sunderland drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Brentford at 45% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Vitaly Janelt 57' for Brentford, Enzo Le Fée (penalty) 82' for Sunderland.
How the call on Brentford v Sunderland has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Brentford's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Brentford win45%▲ +2
- Draw28%=
- Sunderland win27%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.