Brentford vs Sunderland Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Brentford 1-1 Sunderland.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Brentford, 28% draw, 27% Sunderland — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brentford at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Brentford vs Sunderland
Line-ups
- 1C. KelleherG
- 33M. KayodeD
- 20K. AjerD
- 22N. CollinsD
- 23K. Lewis-PotterD
- 18M. SangaréM
- 27V. JaneltM
- 11D. OuattaraM
- 24M. DamsgaardM
- 7K. SchadeM
- 9ThiagoF
- 14Fábio CarvalhoM
- 13C. WilsonF
- 19J. AnthonyF
- 6Y. YarmolyukM
- 44Jannik SchusterD
- 25E. DioufD
- 3R. HenryD
- 2A. HickeyD
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
- 22R. RoefsG
- 20N. MukieleD
- 4K. DansoD
- 5D. BallardD
- 17ReinildoD
- 34G. XhakaM
- 27N. SadikiM
- 12T. MeunierM
- 28E. Le FéeM
- 10N. AnguloM
- 9B. BrobbeyF
- 18W. IsidorF
- 39M. FofanaF
- 11C. RiggM
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 6D. MethalieD
- 15O. AldereteD
- 13L. O'NienM
- 32T. HumeD
- 31M. EllborgG
Form going into Brentford vs Sunderland
Brentford
- D1-1away to Leeds30 August 2026
- W3-0Tottenham22 August 2026
Sunderland
- W1-0Fulham30 August 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Brentford | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Brentford vs Sunderland
- 5 September 2026Brentford 1–1 SunderlandPremier League
- 7 January 2026Brentford 3–0 SunderlandPremier League
- 30 August 2025Sunderland 2–1 BrentfordPremier League
- 17 February 2018Sunderland 0–2 BrentfordChampionship
- 21 October 2017Brentford 3–3 SunderlandChampionship
Leading scorers: Brentford and Sunderland
Brentford
- K. Schade3 goals
Sunderland
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.