5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Fulham vs Crystal Palace Premier League prediction & result

Craven Cottage, London
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Fulham 2-3 Crystal Palace.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Fulham, 29% draw, 33% Crystal Palace — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Fulham at 38% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fulham0%Draw4%Crystal Palace96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Josh King
11'
14'
•Daichi Kamada
35'
⚽Tyrick Mitchellassist: Eddie Nketiah
⚽Cesar Palacios Perez
42'
45'
🔁Eddie Nketiahout: Jörgen Strand Larsen
54'
⚽Tyrick Mitchell
🔁Cesar Palacios Perezout: Sander Berge
62'
74'
🔁Quinten Timberout: Will Hughes
74'
🔁Tyrick Mitchellout: Ben Chilwell
77'
⚽Ben Chilwellassist: Daichi Kamada
🔁Antonee Robinsonout: Ryan Sessegnon
79'
🔁Oscar Bobbout: Hugo Larsson
79'
🔁Shea Charlesout: Emile Smith Rowe
79'
🔁Alex Iwobiout: Rodrigo Muniz
83'
89'
🔁Yeremy Pinoout: Oscar Mingueza
89'
🔁Daichi Kamadaout: Dario Osorio

Match stats — Fulham vs Crystal Palace

65%Possession35%
25Shots10
6On target5
7Corners1

Line-ups

Fulham 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. LenoG
  • 21T. CastagneD
  • 5J. AndersenD
  • 3C. BasseyD
  • 33A. RobinsonD
  • 19S. CharlesM
  • 17A. IwobiM
  • 14Oscar BobbM
  • 24Joshua KingM
  • 8César PalaciosM
  • 7Gonzalo GarcíaF
Substitutes
  • 23B. LecomteG
  • 22D. AffengruberD
  • 30R. SessegnonM
  • 16S. BergeM
  • 32E. Smith RoweM
  • 11KevinF
  • 15H. LarssonM
  • 20Manuel ÁngelM
  • 9Rodrigo MunizF
Coach: Álvaro Arbeloa
Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1
  • 1D. HendersonG
  • 26C. RichardsD
  • 5A. DisasiD
  • 6J. CanvotD
  • 25A. KhalailiM
  • 23Q. TimberM
  • 20A. WhartonM
  • 3T. MitchellM
  • 18D. KamadaM
  • 10Yeremy PinoM
  • 9E. NketiahF
Substitutes
  • 19W. HughesM
  • 12Z. GozoF
  • 24D. OsorioM
  • 22J. Strand LarsenF
  • 30Óscar MinguezaD
  • 17T. TomiyasuD
  • 33B. ChilwellD
  • 28C. DoucouréM
  • 44W. BenítezG
Coach: P. Sage

Form going into Fulham vs Crystal Palace

Fulham

  • L0-1away to Sunderland30 August 2026
  • L2-3Chelsea24 August 2026

Crystal Palace

  • L1-4Manchester City28 August 2026
  • L0-2away to Everton22 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Fulham401347-31
16Crystal Palace4103611-53

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fulham vs Crystal Palace

  • 5 September 2026Fulham 2–3 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • 7 August 2026Fulham 1–2 Crystal PalaceFriendlies Clubs
  • 1 January 2026Crystal Palace 1–1 FulhamPremier League
  • 7 December 2025Fulham 1–2 Crystal PalacePremier League
  • 29 March 2025Fulham 0–3 Crystal PalaceFA Cup
  • 22 February 2025Fulham 0–2 Crystal PalacePremier League

Leading scorers: Fulham and Crystal Palace

Fulham

  • Joshua King2 goals

Crystal Palace

  • T. Mitchell2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.