23 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

De Graafschap vs Waalwijk Eerste Divisie prediction & result

De Vijverberg, Doetinchem
Full time1 – 1

Final score: De Graafschap 1-1 Waalwijk.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% De Graafschap, 27% draw, 36% Waalwijk — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

De Graafschap at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

De Graafschap4%Draw92%Waalwijk4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Bjorn van Zijlassist: Rowan Besselink
33'
62'
🔁Virgil Misidjanout: Ryan Fage
62'
🔁F. Al Mazyaniout: Navajo Bakboord
🔁Levi Schoppemaout: Jannes Luca·Wieckhoff
65'
🔁Kaya Symonsout: Clint Leemans
65'
🔁Bjorn van Zijlout: Nathan Charles Kaninda
71'
73'
Loek Postma
77'
🔁Jordy de Wijsout: Sven van der Plas
77'
🔁Loek Postmaout: Azzedine Dkidak
🔁Donny Warmerdamout: Kyano Kwint
79'
🔁Toivo Meroout: Joran Hardeman
79'
83'
⚽Ryan Fageassist: Tim van de Loo
89'
🔁Jesse van de Haarout: Nazjir Held

Match stats — De Graafschap vs Waalwijk

38%Possession62%
11Shots23
3On target3
5Corners8
1.02xG1.59

Goals against chances

De Graafschap1 from 1.02 xGabout what the chances were worth
Waalwijk1 from 1.59 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

De Graafschap 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. WieggersG
  • 16N. MartensD
  • 3R. BesselinkD
  • 15T. KokD
  • 5L. SchoppemaD
  • 8D. WarmerdamM
  • 21K. SymonsM
  • 7Bjorn van ZijlM
  • 23M. DiemersM
  • 11T. MeroM
  • 10F. de JongF
Substitutes
  • 22P. ReversonG
  • 6C. LeemansM
  • 2J. WieckhoffD
  • 20Gabriele FinocchiaroM
  • 18Denzel EijkenM
  • 14Gijs BolkD
  • 27N. Ahmeti-GraincaM
  • 4J. HardemanD
  • 33R. JonkersG
Coach: T. Duivenvoorden
Waalwijk 4-1-3-2
  • 1N. SchiksG
  • 33F. Al MazyaniD
  • 4L. van GelderenD
  • 30J. de WijsD
  • 5Juan Carlos Familia-CastilloD
  • 6L. PostmaM
  • 93V. MisidjanM
  • 22T. van de LooM
  • 11Yorem van der VeenM
  • 27F. StokkersF
  • 9J. van de HaarF
Substitutes
  • 24A. DkidakD
  • 7R. FageM
  • 55N. HeldD
  • 17R. KuijpersF
  • 13Xander MulderG
  • 8J. NapM
  • 20Keyan VarelaF
  • 16M. SpenkelinkG
  • 19H. van GemertF
Coach: Sander Duits

Form going into De Graafschap vs Waalwijk

De Graafschap

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-2away to Jong Ajax19 October 2026
  • W2-1Jong Utrecht9 October 2026

Waalwijk

Eerste Divisie

  • D1-1FC Volendam18 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16De Graafschap144371829-1115
9Waalwijk154832720+720

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: De Graafschap vs Waalwijk

  • 23 January 2026De Graafschap 2–4 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
  • 9 November 2025Waalwijk 1–4 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 30 March 2018De Graafschap 1–0 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
  • 2 September 2017Waalwijk 0–0 De GraafschapEerste Divisie
  • 7 April 2017De Graafschap 4–0 WaalwijkEerste Divisie
  • 25 November 2016Waalwijk 2–1 De GraafschapEerste Divisie

The result against the call

De Graafschap and Waalwijk drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for De Graafschap at 37% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Bjorn van Zijl 33' for De Graafschap, Ryan Fage 83' for Waalwijk. On expected goals it finished 1.02–1.59.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave De Graafschap a 15.4% chance to finish in the top eight: 19.3% after a win, 14.2% after a draw, 10.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 14.2%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.

For Waalwijk the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 49.2% going in: 56.9% after a win, 46.7% after a draw, 44.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 46.7%, 2.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.