23 October 2026, 18:00 UTC

Almere City FC vs Roda Eerste Divisie prediction & result

Yanmar Stadion, Almere
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Almere City FC 2-3 Roda.

Before kick-off the model made it 48% Almere City FC, 30% draw, 22% Roda — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Almere City FC at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Almere City FC0%Draw4%Roda96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽H. el Dahriassist: Jamie Jacobs
5'
33'
🔁Dyon Dorenboschout: Jerome Deom
⚽Jamie Jacobs
51'
54'
⚽Anthony van den Hurkassist: Guilherme Martinho Peixoto
🔁Jamie Jacobsout: Marley Dors
58'
🔁Jochem Ritmeester Van De Kampout: Emanuel Poku
59'
61'
⚽Anthony van den Hurkassist: Jerome Deom
🔁Teun Bijleveldout: Job Kalisvaart
64'
69'
🔁Mitchel Paulissenout: Bram Marsman
69'
🔁Cain Seedorfout: Jeremiah Mensah
74'
⚽Anthony van den Hurkassist: Jeremiah Mensah
🔁H. el Dahriout: Byron Burgering
76'
🔁Mees Hoedemakersout: Milan de Haan
76'
90'
🔁Koen Jansenout: X. van den Berg
90'
🔁Joshua Nisbetout: Luuk Verheij

Match stats — Almere City FC vs Roda

52%Possession48%
14Shots18
6On target12
3Corners14
1.75xG2.73

Goals against chances

Almere City FC2 from 1.75 xGabout what the chances were worth
Roda3 from 2.73 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Almere City FC 4-2-3-1
  • 1Wessel SpeelG
  • 2M. WasinskiD
  • 3J. JacobsD
  • 4J. LawrenceD
  • 5T. BijleveldD
  • 14M. HoedemakersM
  • 6E. CornelisseM
  • 23J. Ritmeester van de KampM
  • 10J. JacobsM
  • 21H. El DahriM
  • 9F. DruijfF
Substitutes
  • 7B. BurgeringF
  • 11M. DorsF
  • 18Bas HuismanF
  • 20J. KalisvaartM
  • 24M. MateyoG
  • 17E. PokuF
  • 8M. de HaanM
  • 19Olivier de NijsM
  • 44D. van BruggenD
Coach: Anoush Dastgir
Roda 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. TreichelG
  • 3M. TolD
  • 33D. Van den BuijsD
  • 15L. BeertenD
  • 17Guilherme Martinho PeixotoM
  • 11D. DorenboschM
  • 4J. NisbetM
  • 5K. JansenM
  • 7C. SeedorfM
  • 6M. PaulissenM
  • 9A. van den HurkF
Substitutes
  • 2Luuk VerheijM
  • 26J. SleegersF
  • 10F. SchentenF
  • 8J. MensahM
  • 25Bram MarsmanD
  • 24J. DéomM
  • 14X. van den BergD
  • 28J. van DammeG
  • 21M. StojcevicG
Coach: R. Penders

Form going into Almere City FC vs Roda

Almere City FC

Eerste Divisie

  • L1-2away to Emmen17 October 2026

Roda

Eerste Divisie

  • W2-1away to Jong Utrecht19 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eerste Divisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Almere City FC1510143615+2131
5Roda158432118+328

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Almere City FC vs Roda

  • 30 January 2026Almere City FC 1–2 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 20 October 2025Roda 2–0 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 24 February 2023Roda 0–2 Almere City FCEerste Divisie
  • 30 September 2022Almere City FC 2–1 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 14 January 2022Almere City FC 0–4 RodaEerste Divisie
  • 27 August 2021Roda 3–4 Almere City FCEerste Divisie

Leading scorers: Almere City FC and Roda

Almere City FC

GoalsAssists

  • F. Druijf103
  • M. Dors54

Roda

GoalsAssists

  • A. van den Hurk90

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Roda won 3–2 at Almere City FC. The model had leaned towards a win for Almere City FC at 48% and given a win for Roda 22%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: H. el Dahri 5' for Almere City FC, Jamie Jacobs 51' for Almere City FC, Anthony van den Hurk 54' for Roda, Anthony van den Hurk 61' for Roda, Anthony van den Hurk 74' for Roda. On expected goals it finished 1.75–2.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Almere City FC a 95.5% chance to finish in the top eight: 97.2% after a win, 94.7% after a draw, 92.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 92.4%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

For Roda the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 63.5% going in: 73.3% after a win, 64.5% after a draw, 59.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 73.3%, 9.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eerste Divisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.