IMT Novi Beograd vs Železničar Pančevo Super Liga prediction & result
Final score: IMT Novi Beograd 0-1 Železničar Pančevo.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% IMT Novi Beograd, 32% draw, 32% Železničar Pančevo — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
IMT Novi Beograd at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — IMT Novi Beograd vs Železničar Pančevo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1O. ČančarevićG
- 45Ismael CasasD
- 5M. SissakoD
- 65S. ŠapićD
- 3Iván MartosD
- 20D. RadivojevicM
- 22Vasilije NovicicM
- 27V. RadočajM
- 18W. TiendrébéogoM
- 7N. GlišićM
- 99C. KeitaF
- 2Julián DelmásD
- 29K. FabienF
- 40F. KamanoF
- 14I. KebeM
- 94V. KiankauluaF
- 37Daniel AghahowaF
- 21Matej PribišićG
- 28A. MilanovicD
- 24Luka GuticD
- 1Z. PopovićG
- 19U. TegeltijaD
- 6M. MilikićD
- 5N. VidojevićD
- 33N. ĐuričićD
- 26M. Amadou SaboM
- 17A. KuljaninM
- 20J. JevremovićM
- 77K. ŠekularacM
- 95S. PlavšićM
- 21D. AnkeyeF
- 47Yassin SbaiF
- 12A. YusifD
- 27M. PantovićM
- 63S. ObradovićD
- 66J. MiladinovićG
- 88C. LhernaultM
- 90K. KwakuF
- 11N. JovanovićF
- 14D. TosicM
Form going into IMT Novi Beograd vs Železničar Pančevo
IMT Novi Beograd
Super Liga
- W2-1away to Novi Pazar18 October 2026
- W1-0Radnik Surdulica10 October 2026
Železničar Pančevo
Super Liga
- W1-0FK Partizan18 October 2026
- W3-0away to Zemun11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serbia Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | IMT Novi Beograd | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 23 |
| 3 | Železničar Pančevo | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 12 | +12 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: IMT Novi Beograd vs Železničar Pančevo
- 13 December 2025Železničar Pančevo 1–0 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 11 August 2025IMT Novi Beograd 1–4 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 4 May 2025IMT Novi Beograd 0–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 21 December 2024IMT Novi Beograd 1–1 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
- 18 August 2024Železničar Pančevo 2–1 IMT Novi BeogradSuper Liga
- 22 April 2024IMT Novi Beograd 0–0 Železničar PančevoSuper Liga
Leading scorers: IMT Novi Beograd and Železničar Pančevo
IMT Novi Beograd
GoalsAssists
- C. Keita32
Železničar Pančevo
GoalsAssists
- D. Ankeye50
- K. Kwaku42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Železničar Pančevo won 1–0 at IMT Novi Beograd. The model had leaned towards a win for IMT Novi Beograd at 36% and given a win for Železničar Pančevo 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: David Akpan Ankeye 5' for Železničar Pančevo. On expected goals it finished 0.61–0.78.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave IMT Novi Beograd a 87.0% chance to finish in the top six: 92.5% after a win, 86.5% after a draw, 82.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 82.2%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.
For Železničar Pančevo the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 91.3% going in: 95.1% after a win, 91.4% after a draw, 88.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 95.1%, 3.8 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on IMT Novi Beograd v Železničar Pančevo has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 36% / 32% / 32%: the biggest move is IMT Novi Beograd's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- IMT Novi Beograd win36%▼ −2
- Draw32%▲ +1
- Železničar Pančevo win32%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.