23 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Zemun vs Macva Super Liga prediction & result

Zemun Stadium, Belgrade
Referee: A. Stojanovic
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Zemun 1-0 Macva.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Zemun, 30% draw, 40% Macva — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Macva at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zemun96%Draw4%Macva0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Milan Spremo
21'
oliver stoimenovski
29'
🔁Đorđe Petrovićout: Uros Ljubomirac
45'
🔁Marko Saricout: novak petrusic
45'
49'
Đorđe Đorđić
sasa knezevic
58'
58'
🔁Bosko Vrastanovicout: Kristijan Tojcic
🔁nemanja belakovicout: Godswill Vadze
61'
63'
Nemanja Stevanović
Mykhailo Meskhi
65'
66'
🔁Đorđe Đorđićout: Vasilije Đurić
66'
🔁mitar ergelasout: stefan colovic
🔁Nikola Dovedanout: Dimitrije Tabaković
71'
⚽Dimitrije Tabakovićassist: Godswill Vadze
80'
82'
Uros Drezgic
83'
🔁Danilo Kneževićout: Nikša Delibašić
83'
🔁Milan Vidakovout: Bojan Matic
84'
Kristijan Tojcic
🔁nemanja kalatout: Đorđe Jovanović
89'

Match stats — Zemun vs Macva

44%Possession56%
10Shots7
3On target1
1Corners2
0.57xG0.44

Goals against chances

Zemun1 from 0.57 xGabout what the chances were worth
Macva0 from 0.44 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zemun 4-2-3-1
  • 99M. DubljanićG
  • 11S. KnezevicD
  • 21I. OstojićD
  • 15O. StoimenovskiD
  • 16M. SpremoD
  • 20D. PetrovicM
  • 32M. MeskhiM
  • 31N. KalatM
  • 14N. DovedanM
  • 10N. BelakovićM
  • 45M. ŠarićF
Substitutes
  • 6Z. BogdanovicM
  • 8O. IlićM
  • 88A. KadijevićD
  • 1M. KneževićG
  • 27U. LjubomiracM
  • 29A. MilosevicD
  • 25D. ParađinaD
  • 9N. PetrusicF
  • 19G. VadzeF
Coach: Gjorgji Mojsov
Macva 4-2-3-1
  • 89V. JovanovićG
  • 17N. LainovićD
  • 26U. DrezgićD
  • 15S. SladojevićD
  • 44N. StevanovićD
  • 34Danilo KneževićM
  • 8B. VraštanovićM
  • 10M. ErgelašM
  • 30Đorđe ĐorđićM
  • 27L. PejovićM
  • 9M. VidakovF
Substitutes
  • 22K. TojčićD
  • 19I. RistivojevićD
  • 50B. MatićF
  • 21Vasilije ĐurićM
  • 4V. IlicD
  • 35Issa KoneD
  • 12K. RakonicG
  • 5Darko TerzićM
  • 99N. DelibasicF
Coach: N. Glušica

Form going into Zemun vs Macva

Zemun

Super Liga

  • L0-3away to Cukaricki17 October 2026
  • L0-3Železničar Pančevo11 October 2026

Macva

Super Liga

  • D1-1OFK Beograd17 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Cukaricki10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Zemun151410829-217
11Macva153481326-1313

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zemun vs Macva

  • 20 June 2026Macva 1–1 ZemunFriendlies Clubs
  • 22 April 2026Zemun 2–0 MacvaPrva Liga
  • 14 December 2025Macva 1–1 ZemunPrva Liga
  • 6 September 2025Zemun 1–0 MacvaPrva Liga
  • 3 March 2025Macva 0–0 ZemunPrva Liga
  • 29 September 2024Zemun 0–2 MacvaPrva Liga

Leading scorers: Zemun and Macva

Zemun

No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Macva

GoalsAssists

  • M. Vidakov40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zemun beat Macva 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Macva at 40% and given a win for Zemun 30%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Dimitrije Tabaković 80' for Zemun. On expected goals it finished 0.57–0.44.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Macva a 58.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 47.9% after a win, 64.1% after a draw, 69.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 69.4%, 10.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Zemun v Macva has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 38% / 30% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 30% / 30% / 40%: the biggest move is Zemun's chance of winning, down 8 points.

  1. Zemun win30%▼ −8
  2. Draw30%=
  3. Macva win40%▲ +8

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.