23 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Radnicki NIS vs Novi Pazar Super Liga prediction & result

Čair Stadium, Niš
Referee: S. Jovanovic
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Radnicki NIS 0-2 Novi Pazar.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Radnicki NIS, 29% draw, 34% Novi Pazar — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Radnicki NIS at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Radnicki NIS0%Draw1%Novi Pazar99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
Skima Togbe
Luka Izderic
29'
34'
stefan malentijevic
36'
⚽Kaheim Dixonassist: Adem Ljajić
🔁Igor Ivanovićout: Kwaku Bonsu Osei
45'
🔁Gboly Ariyibiout: Ibrahim·Mustapha
45'
46'
Ivan Davidovic
🔁Ranko Jokićout: Nikola·Zecevik
51'
59'
⚽Kaheim Dixonassist: Dominic Sadi
🔁stefan nikolicout: Vukasin jovanovic
62'
63'
🔁Skima Togbeout: Vieri Kotzebue
71'
🔁Adem Ljajićout: Dimitrije Janković
Ibrahim·Mustapha
75'
77'
🔁Fejsal Mulicout: Nikola skrobonja
Kwaku Bonsu Osei
83'
90+1'
Vieri Kotzebue

Match stats — Radnicki NIS vs Novi Pazar

53%Possession47%
15Shots10
0On target6
7Corners4
1.26xG0.98

Goals against chances

Radnicki NIS0 from 1.26 xGless than the chances were worth
Novi Pazar2 from 0.98 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Radnicki NIS 4-4-2
  • 94D. StanivukovićG
  • 18S. VeličkovićD
  • 2M. MijailovićD
  • 3R. JokićD
  • 20A. VidovićD
  • 11I. IvanovićM
  • 22R. MilosavljevićM
  • 15D. KrajišnikM
  • 28G. AriyibiM
  • 89Luka IzdericF
  • 70Stefan NikolicF
Substitutes
  • 42V. JovanovićF
  • 12I. KostićG
  • 23I. MustaphaF
  • 19K. OseiF
  • 71D. PetrovićD
  • 9A. ShestyukF
  • 5N. ZečevićD
  • 14M. RoševićF
  • 17Luka BorovicM
Coach: N. Drinčić
Novi Pazar 4-2-3-1
  • 1Bogdan MatijaševićG
  • 14N. StankovicD
  • 5S. MelentijevićD
  • 4Allan De LeónD
  • 50T. DadićD
  • 8Skima TogbeM
  • 24I. DavidovićM
  • 10D. SadiM
  • 22A. LjajićM
  • 20K. DixonM
  • 99F. MulićF
Substitutes
  • 18H. KadrićF
  • 9V. KotzebueF
  • 17M. MalekinušićF
  • 3V. MirosavićD
  • 21M. PetrovićM
  • 12M. PrekovićG
  • 11Nikola SkrobonjaM
  • 7JonnyF
  • 70D. JankovićM
Coach: N. Lalatović

Form going into Radnicki NIS vs Novi Pazar

Radnicki NIS

Super Liga

  • L0-3away to Radnik Surdulica16 October 2026
  • L1-4Vojvodina11 October 2026

Novi Pazar

Super Liga

  • L1-2IMT Novi Beograd18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to FK Partizan11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Radnicki NIS1422101025-158
8Novi Pazar155461516-119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Radnicki NIS vs Novi Pazar

  • 14 December 2025Novi Pazar 1–0 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
  • 10 August 2025Radnicki NIS 2–3 Novi PazarSuper Liga
  • 7 April 2025Novi Pazar 3–3 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
  • 9 November 2024Radnicki NIS 2–1 Novi PazarSuper Liga
  • 24 May 2024Novi Pazar 2–1 Radnicki NISSuper Liga
  • 15 April 2024Novi Pazar 2–2 Radnicki NISSuper Liga

Leading scorers: Radnicki NIS and Novi Pazar

Radnicki NIS

No player in Super Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.

Novi Pazar

GoalsAssists

  • K. Dixon52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Novi Pazar won 2–0 at Radnicki NIS. The model had leaned towards a win for Radnicki NIS at 37% and given a win for Novi Pazar 34%. The goals: Kaheim Dixon 36' for Novi Pazar, Kaheim Dixon 59' for Novi Pazar. On expected goals it finished 1.26–0.98.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Radnicki NIS a 57.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 46.0% after a win, 60.6% after a draw, 67.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 67.7%, 10.4 points higher than before the match.

For Novi Pazar the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 18.2% going in: 9.4% after a win, 16.6% after a draw, 25.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.4%, 8.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Radnicki NIS v Novi Pazar has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Radnicki NIS's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Radnicki NIS win37%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Novi Pazar win34%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.