23 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin
Referee: Mateusz Jenda, Poland
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Motor Lublin 2-2 Zaglebie Lubin.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Motor Lublin, 29% draw, 31% Zaglebie Lubin — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Motor Lublin at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Motor Lublin4%Draw93%Zaglebie Lubin3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Yacine Bourhane
25'
28'
David Čolina
45+1'
⚽Sebastian Kerk
45'
🔁David Čolinaout: Damian Michalski
48'
⚽Marcel Regulaassist: Michał Nalepa
🔁Yacine Bourhaneout: Mateusz Legowski
56'
🔁Makan Aikoout: Fabio Ronaldo Costa Conceicao
56'
66'
🔁Mateusz Dziewiatowskiout: Jakub·Sypek
66'
🔁Sebastian Kerkout: Filip Szymczak
🔁Christopher Simonout: Alioune Oumar Tall
72'
🔁Kamil Lukoszekout: Thomas Santos
72'
⚽Mateusz Legowski
74'
75'
🔁Marcel Regulaout: Mateusz Grzybek
Karol Czubak
76'
🔁Filip Lubereckiout: Mateusz Posmyk
85'
⚽Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye
87'
90+1'
Mateusz Grzybek
90+5'
🔁Josip Ćorlukaout: Mihael Mlinarić

Match stats — Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin

58%Possession42%
25Shots10
7On target3
8Corners2
2.12xG0.57

Goals against chances

Motor Lublin2 from 2.12 xGabout what the chances were worth
Zaglebie Lubin2 from 0.57 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Motor Lublin 4-1-4-1
  • 33G. TratnikG
  • 17K. LukoszekD
  • 18B. BereszyńskiD
  • 4T. PlavotićD
  • 24F. LubereckiD
  • 27Y. BourhaneM
  • 30M. NdiayeM
  • 9Rony LopesM
  • 8C. SimonM
  • 70M. AïkoM
  • 10K. CzubakF
Substitutes
  • 5A. AkatovD
  • 90Dominik GregorskiF
  • 23F. HaxhaM
  • 2Paskal Konrad MeyerD
  • 71M. PopaG
  • 77Mateusz PosmykF
  • 29T. SantosD
  • 47Alioune TallM
  • 22M. ZlomanczukM
Coach: M. Misiura
Zaglebie Lubin 4-5-1
  • 33Z. AlomerovićG
  • 5A. ŁawniczakD
  • 25M. NalepaD
  • 3R. YakubaD
  • 16J. ĆorlukaM
  • 39F. KocabaM
  • 20M. DziewiatowskiM
  • 8D. DąbrowskiM
  • 6D. ČolinaM
  • 37S. KerkF
  • 44M. RegułaF
Substitutes
  • 13M. GrzybekD
  • 30D. HładunG
  • 26J. KolanM
  • 19S. ŁyczkoM
  • 4D. MichalskiD
  • 31I. OrlikowskiD
  • 99C. PopielecM
  • 7J. SypekM
  • 18F. SzymczakF
Coach: L. Ojrzynski

Form going into Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin

Motor Lublin

Ekstraklasa

  • W3-2Slask Wroclaw17 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Radomiak Radom12 October 2026

Zaglebie Lubin

Ekstraklasa

  • W1-0Jagiellonia18 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Cracovia Krakow10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Motor Lublin145452224-219
6Zaglebie Lubin146531817+123

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin

  • 20 March 2026Motor Lublin 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 21 September 2025Zaglebie Lubin 2–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 18 May 2025Motor Lublin 1–0 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
  • 22 November 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 19 October 2022Motor Lublin 1–0 Zaglebie LubinCup

Leading scorers: Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin

Motor Lublin

GoalsAssists

  • K. Czubak70
  • M. Ndiaye43

Zaglebie Lubin

GoalsAssists

  • M. Reguła50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Motor Lublin and Zaglebie Lubin drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Motor Lublin at 40% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Sebastian Kerk 45+1' for Zaglebie Lubin, Marcel Regula 48' for Zaglebie Lubin, Mateusz Legowski 74' for Motor Lublin, Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye 87' for Motor Lublin. On expected goals it finished 2.12–0.57.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Motor Lublin a 20.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.9% after a win, 22.4% after a draw, 25.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 22.4%, 1.7 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Motor Lublin v Zaglebie Lubin has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 36% / 30% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Motor Lublin's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Motor Lublin win40%▲ +4
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Zaglebie Lubin win31%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.