23 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Radnicki 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica Super Liga prediction & result

Kragujevac
Referee: M. Jakovljevic
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Radnicki 1923 1-0 Radnik Surdulica.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Radnicki 1923, 27% draw, 28% Radnik Surdulica — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Radnicki 1923 at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Radnicki 192396%Draw4%Radnik Surdulica0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Uros·Sremcevicassist: Ilija·Babic
27'
Mohamed Cisse
43'
45'
🔁Darko Stojanovićout: Aleksandar Pejović
53'
Uros Lazic
🔁Bojica Nikčevićout: Mićo Kuzmanović
58'
🔁David Buchtaout: Jovan Ilic
58'
62'
🔁Milos Spasicout: Djordje Jovanovic
62'
🔁Filip Zunicout: Tijan Sohna
•Uros·Sremcevic
71'
Mićo Kuzmanović
71'
72'
🔁Emmanuel Quarshieout: Luka Jovanović
76'
🔁Otabek Shukurovout: Ayouba Kosiah
80'
Aleksandar Pejović
🔁Nemanja Glavčićout: Asmir Suljić
81'
🔁Jovan Živkovićout: Semir Alic
82'
🔁Mohamed Cisseout: Mohamed Mezghrani
86'
89'
Ayouba Kosiah
Ilija·Babic
90+3'

Match stats — Radnicki 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica

51%Possession49%
18Shots13
6On target3
7Corners4
1.91xG0.74

Goals against chances

Radnicki 19231 from 1.91 xGless than the chances were worth
Radnik Surdulica0 from 0.74 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Radnicki 1923 4-1-4-1
  • 1M. ŠahinovićG
  • 7B. NikčevićD
  • 5Nikola MarjanovićD
  • 14S. SimovićD
  • 11I. BabićD
  • 27M. RistićM
  • 10M. CisséM
  • 35N. GlavčićM
  • 19D. BuchtaM
  • 70J. ŽivkovićM
  • 9U. SremčevićF
Substitutes
  • 28S. AlićM
  • 80J. IlićM
  • 8M. KuzmanovićD
  • 81L. LijeskićG
  • 2M. MezghraniM
  • 4N. MiličićD
  • 99A. SuljićF
  • 29António Pina GomesF
  • 25T. UdeD
Coach: Fedja Dudic
Radnik Surdulica 4-2-3-1
  • 99S. RandjelovicG
  • 18F. ŽunićD
  • 37S. AbubakarD
  • 5M. PopovićD
  • 22U. LazićD
  • 3Luka ŽorićM
  • 29O. ShukurovM
  • 47Emmanuel QuarshieM
  • 7D. StojanovićM
  • 27M. SpasićM
  • 9V. BogdanovićF
Substitutes
  • 21U. FilipovicD
  • 14Uroš IlićD
  • 88Đ. JovanovićF
  • 92A. KosiahF
  • 25Teo LakićF
  • 49D. MarkočevićF
  • 28A. PejovićM
  • 23Lazar RadojicicG
  • 34Nikša BlagojevićD
Coach: Zoran Rendulic

Form going into Radnicki 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica

Radnicki 1923

Super Liga

  • L0-2away to Vojvodina17 October 2026

Radnik Surdulica

Super Liga

  • W3-0Radnicki NIS16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to IMT Novi Beograd10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serbia Super Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Radnicki 1923157262219+323
6Radnik Surdulica156542018+223

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Radnicki 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica

  • 15 February 2026Radnicki 1923 0–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 13 September 2025Radnik Surdulica 2–3 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
  • 8 March 2024Radnik Surdulica 0–1 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
  • 20 December 2023Radnicki 1923 1–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 5 November 2022Radnicki 1923 1–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
  • 23 July 2022Radnik Surdulica 0–0 Radnicki 1923Super Liga

Leading scorers: Radnicki 1923 and Radnik Surdulica

Radnicki 1923

GoalsAssists

  • U. Sremčević61
  • M. Cissé42

Radnik Surdulica

GoalsAssists

  • V. Bogdanović61
  • M. Novaković33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Radnicki 1923 beat Radnik Surdulica 1–0. The model had made a win for Radnicki 1923 its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: Uros·Sremcevic 27' for Radnicki 1923. On expected goals it finished 1.91–0.74.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Radnicki 1923 a 71.5% chance to finish in the top six: 79.9% after a win, 69.5% after a draw, 59.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 79.9%, 8.4 points higher than before the match.

For Radnik Surdulica the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 45.0% going in: 59.7% after a win, 44.7% after a draw, 36.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.1%, 8.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Super Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Radnicki 1923 v Radnik Surdulica has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 52% / 25% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Radnicki 1923's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Radnicki 1923 win45%▼ −7
  2. Draw27%▲ +2
  3. Radnik Surdulica win28%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.