23 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Lodz
Referee: Karol Arys, Poland
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Widzew Łódź 1-1 Gornik Zabrze.

Before kick-off the model made it 30% Widzew Łódź, 31% draw, 39% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 3.33, 3.23 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gornik Zabrze at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Widzew Łódź3%Draw94%Gornik Zabrze3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Karol Świderskiassist: Darian Males
16'
🔁mariusz fornalczykout: Stipe Biuk
21'
29'
Malthe Hojholt
40'
⚽Kacper Urbanskiassist: Zeidane Inoussa
🔁Steve Kapuadiout: Christopher Cheng
60'
🔁Karol Świderskiout: Sebastian Bergier
60'
63'
🔁Zeidane Inoussaout: Maksym Khlan
Giannis Papanikolaou
71'
74'
🔁Sondre Lisethout: Erik Prekop
🔁Darian Malesout: Fran Alvarez
78'
🔁Jusuf Gazibegovicout: Marcel Krajewski
78'
mariusz fornalczyk
87'
88'
🔁Kacper Urbanskiout: Jarosław Kubicki

Match stats — Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze

52%Possession48%
11Shots24
5On target6
4Corners7
0.82xG1.95

Goals against chances

Widzew Łódź1 from 0.82 xGabout what the chances were worth
Gornik Zabrze1 from 1.95 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Widzew Łódź 4-1-4-1
  • 1B. DrągowskiG
  • 70J. GazibegovićD
  • 25P. WiśniewskiD
  • 14VisusD
  • 3S. KapuadiD
  • 5G. PapanikolaouM
  • 19D. MalesM
  • 8E. KornvigM
  • 6J. ShehuM
  • 7M. FornalczykM
  • 28K. ŚwiderskiF
Substitutes
  • 79S. BiukM
  • 99S. BergierF
  • 17C. ChengD
  • 48Franciszek GolańskiG
  • 30V. IlićG
  • 20A. KlukowskiM
  • 91M. KrajewskiD
  • 18L. SelahiM
  • 90Ioan VermeșanF
Coach: M. Stolarski
Gornik Zabrze 4-4-2
  • 1P. SchulzeG
  • 21O. ZmrzlýD
  • 26R. JanickiD
  • 20Josema SánchezD
  • 64E. JanžaD
  • 19PeterM
  • 6M. HøjholtM
  • 82K. UrbańskiM
  • 27Z. InoussaM
  • 8Paulo BernardoF
  • 23S. LisethF
Substitutes
  • 24K. SemikM
  • 11E. PrekopF
  • 99T. LoskaG
  • 14J. KubickiM
  • 33M. KhlanM
  • 29W. KaniaG
  • 7Y. Ikia DimiM
  • 34B. DurdovM
  • 28B. DonioM
Coach: M. Gašparík

Form going into Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze

Widzew Łódź

Ekstraklasa

  • D0-0Wisla Krakow16 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Piast Gliwice11 October 2026

Gornik Zabrze

Ekstraklasa

  • D1-1Piast Gliwice18 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Jagiellonia10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Widzew Łódź142842019+114
2Gornik Zabrze149412312+1131

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze

  • 22 March 2026Widzew Łódź 0–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 21 September 2025Gornik Zabrze 3–2 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 27 April 2025Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 27 October 2024Widzew Łódź 0–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 25 February 2024Widzew Łódź 3–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
  • 18 August 2023Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze

Widzew Łódź

GoalsAssists

  • K. Świderski51

Gornik Zabrze

GoalsAssists

  • K. Urbański51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Gornik Zabrze at 39% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Karol Świderski 16' for Widzew Łódź, Kacper Urbanski 40' for Gornik Zabrze. On expected goals it finished 0.82–1.95.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Widzew Łódź a 16.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.4% after a win, 16.5% after a draw, 19.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 16.5%.

For Gornik Zabrze the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 45.6% going in: 51.8% after a win, 44.4% after a draw, 39.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 44.4%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Widzew Łódź v Gornik Zabrze has moved

First published on 9 Oct at 32% / 30% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 30% / 31% / 39%: the biggest move is Widzew Łódź's chance of winning, down 2 points.

  1. Widzew Łódź win30%▼ −2
  2. Draw31%▲ +1
  3. Gornik Zabrze win39%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.