24 October 2026, 05:00 UTC

Incheon United vs Jeju United FC K League 1 prediction & result

Sungui Arena Park, Incheon
Referee: Yong-jun Shin, South Korea
Full time3 – 1

Final score: Incheon United 3-1 Jeju United FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Incheon United, 31% draw, 30% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Incheon United at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Incheon United98%Draw2%Jeju United FC0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Juan Ibiza
19'
49'
Kim Ryun-sung
🔁Kim Seong-Minout: Lee Dong-ryul
53'
⚽Lee Myung-Jooassist: Stefan Mugoša
59'
64'
Lee Kun-hee
65'
Yu In-soo
65'
🔁Kwon Gi-minout: Park Chang-Jun
65'
🔁Eraldo Cinariout: Kim Shin-jin
Kim Dong-heon
69'
72'
⚽Emerson Negueba
74'
🔁Lee Kun-heeout: Kim Jae-woo
🔁Leandro Ribeiroout: Morgan Ferrier
78'
⚽Lee Dong-ryul
81'
85'
Park Su-bin
85'
🔁Lee Chang-Minout: Rim Chang-Woo
85'
🔁Park Su-binout: Kang Dong-Hwi
86'
Kim Shin-jin
86'
Julien Celestine
Morgan Ferrier
88'
⚽Lee Chung-Yongassist: Morgan Ferrier
90+1'
🔁Stefan Mugošaout: Park Seung-ho
90+5'
🔁Lee Chung-Yongout: Gerso Fernandes
90+5'
🔁Lee Myung-Jooout: Lee Min-hyuk
90+5'

Match stats — Incheon United vs Jeju United FC

73%Possession27%
13Shots5
7On target2
7Corners0

Line-ups

Incheon United 4-4-2
  • 1Kim Dong-HeonG
  • 39Kim Myung-SunD
  • 4Kim Geon-HuiD
  • 2Juan FernándezD
  • 32Lee Ju-YongD
  • 17Kim Seong-MinM
  • 15Seo Jae-MinM
  • 5Lee Myung-JooM
  • 70Leandro RibeiroM
  • 72Lee Chung-YongF
  • 9S. MugošaF
Substitutes
  • 13Choi Seung-GuD
  • 11GersoF
  • 99M. FerrierF
  • 10Lee Dong-RyulF
  • 26Lee Min-HyeokM
  • 3Lee Sang-GiD
  • 21Lee Tae-HuiG
  • 77Park Seung-HoF
  • 20Park Kyung-SubD
Coach: Jong-hwan Yoon
Jeju United FC 4-5-1
  • 1Kim Dong-JunG
  • 17Yu In-SooD
  • 2Tobias FigueiredoD
  • 3J. CélestineD
  • 40Kim Ryun-SeongD
  • 22E. ÇinariM
  • 8Lee Chang-MinM
  • 33Park Su-BinM
  • 6Gi-min KwonM
  • 94Emerson NeguebaM
  • 10Lee Kun-HeeF
Substitutes
  • 24Choi Byung-WookM
  • 13Chung WoonD
  • 81Heo Ja-UngG
  • 55Dong-hwi KangM
  • 41Kim Jae-WooD
  • 18Kim Sin-JinF
  • 7Chang-Jun ParkF
  • 47Min-jae ParkF
  • 23Rim Chang-WooD
Coach: Sérgio Costa

Form going into Incheon United vs Jeju United FC

Incheon United

K League 1

  • D1-1away to Gangwon FC18 October 2026
  • W3-0Pohang Steelers9 October 2026

Jeju United FC

K League 1

  • L2-3away to Jeonbuk Motors18 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Seoul10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

K League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Incheon United351310124437+749
7Jeju United FC351212114139+248

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Incheon United vs Jeju United FC

  • 2 August 2026Jeju United FC 3–3 Incheon UnitedK League 1
  • 25 April 2026Incheon United 1–0 Jeju United FCK League 1
  • 19 October 2024Incheon United 1–2 Jeju United FCK League 1
  • 10 August 2024Jeju United FC 0–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
  • 26 June 2024Jeju United FC 1–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
  • 6 April 2024Incheon United 0–1 Jeju United FCK League 1

Leading scorers: Incheon United and Jeju United FC

Incheon United

GoalsAssists

  • S. Mugoša111
  • M. Ferrier51

Jeju United FC

GoalsAssists

  • Emerson Negueba62
  • Lee Kun-Hee41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Incheon United beat Jeju United FC 3–1. The model had made a win for Incheon United its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Lee Myung-Joo 59' for Incheon United, Emerson Negueba 72' for Jeju United FC, Lee Dong-ryul 81' for Incheon United, Lee Chung-Yong 90+1' for Incheon United. Sent off: Yu In-soo (Jeju United FC) 65'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Incheon United a 41.7% chance to finish in the top six: 100.0% after a win, 0.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 100.0%, 58.3 points higher than before the match.

For Jeju United FC the question was the chance to finish in the top six, 58.4% going in: 100.0% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 0.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 58.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our K League 1 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.