10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Paykan vs Shams Azar Qazvin Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

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Final score: Paykan 1-1 Shams Azar Qazvin.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Paykan, 29% draw, 27% Shams Azar Qazvin — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paykan at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paykan4%Draw93%Shams Azar Qazvin3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

A. Shojaei
39'
41'
⚽M. Sourgi (pen)
🔁H. Ahmadiout: H. Shoushtari
46'
49'
M. Nejadmehdi
69'
🔁M. Mansouriout: A. Hosseinzadeh
🔁E. Jamshidiout: A. Radin
75'
🔁A. Shojaeiout: J. Asadi
75'
⚽A. Dehghanassist: J. Asadi
76'
79'
🔁A. Karamiout: S. M. Hosseini
82'
M. Rezaei
M. Bagheri
86'
87'
🔁M. Sourgiout: A. A. Chegini
F. Amiri
88'
🔁F. Bagheriout: M. Sayyar
90+1'
🔁S. Mohebiout: M. Hakimzadeh
90+1'

Form going into Paykan vs Shams Azar Qazvin

Paykan

No earlier matches on record this season.

Shams Azar Qazvin

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L2-3Gol Gohar10 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Paykan123541112-114
17Shams Azar Qazvin11146713-67

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paykan vs Shams Azar Qazvin

  • 28 January 2026Paykan 0–1 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 13 September 2025Shams Azar Qazvin 1–1 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 30 April 2024Shams Azar Qazvin 2–1 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 10 November 2023Paykan 1–1 Shams Azar QazvinPersian Gulf Pro League

The result against the call

Paykan and Shams Azar Qazvin drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Paykan at 44% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: M. Sourgi (penalty) 41' for Shams Azar Qazvin, A. Dehghan 76' for Paykan.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Paykan a 2.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: under 1% after a win, 2.2% after a draw, 5.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 2.2%.

For Shams Azar Qazvin the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 28.9% going in: 9.7% after a win, 25.8% after a draw, 40.1% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 25.8%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Paykan v Shams Azar Qazvin has moved

First published on 6 Oct at 41% / 29% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 44% / 29% / 27%: the biggest move is Paykan's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Paykan win44%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%=
  3. Shams Azar Qazvin win27%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.