13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Inter vs Club Brugge KV UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Milan
Referee: Rohit Saggi
Full time3 – 4

Final score: Inter 3-4 Club Brugge KV.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Inter, 22% draw, 27% Club Brugge KV — fair odds of 1.96, 4.55 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Inter at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter0%Draw1%Club Brugge KV99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Jorne Spileers
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
29'
30'
⚽Nicolo Tresoldi (pen)
Manuel Akanji
39'
⚽Lautaro Martínezassist: Federico Dimarco
44'
61'
🔁Jorne Spileersout: Lee Han-beom
61'
🔁Hugo Vetlesenout: Félix Lemaréchal
63'
⚽Nicolo Tresoldiassist: Carlos Forbs
🔁Hakan Çalhanoğluout: Petar Sučić
67'
🔁Marcus Thuramout: Pio Esposito
67'
70'
Jan Virgili Tenas
72'
🔁Kyriani Sabbeout: Hugo Siquet
72'
Lee Han-beom
74'
⚽Nicolo Tresoldi
🔁Nicolò Barellaout: Ange-Yoan Bonny
78'
🔁Federico Dimarcoout: Djed Spence
78'
⚽Lautaro Martínez
81'
81'
Ivan Leko
83'
🔁Nicolo Tresoldiout: Romeo Vermant
83'
🔁Jan Virgili Tenasout: Mamadou Diakhon
87'
⚽Romeo Vermantassist: Carlos Forbs
🔁Piotr Zielińskiout: Aleksandar Stankovic
88'
⚽Ange-Yoan Bonnyassist: Aleksandar Stankovic
90+3'
90+6'
Félix Lemaréchal

Match stats — Inter vs Club Brugge KV

53%Possession47%
30Shots18
12On target8
4Corners4
4.41xG4.34

Goals against chances

Inter3 from 4.41 xGless than the chances were worth
Club Brugge KV4 from 4.34 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Inter 3-5-2
  • 1Josep MartínezG
  • 31Y. BisseckD
  • 25M. AkanjiD
  • 95A. BastoniD
  • 17A. DioufM
  • 23N. BarellaM
  • 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
  • 7P. ZielińskiM
  • 32F. DimarcoM
  • 10Lautaro MartínezF
  • 9M. ThuramF
Substitutes
  • 46L. BovioD
  • 8P. SučićM
  • 5A. StankovićM
  • 99D. SpenceD
  • 49I. ProvedelG
  • 28B. PavardD
  • 22H. MkhitaryanM
  • 14A. BonnyF
  • 30Carlos AugustoD
Coach: C. Chivu
Club Brugge KV 4-5-1
  • 1Y. SommerG
  • 64K. SabbeD
  • 58J. SpileersD
  • 44B. MecheleD
  • 65J. SeysD
  • 9Carlos ForbsM
  • 10H. VetlesenM
  • 8F. PottsM
  • 20H. VanakenM
  • 11Jan VirgiliM
  • 7N. TresoldiF
Substitutes
  • 67M. DiakhonF
  • 29N. JackersG
  • 3Lee Han-BeomD
  • 80F. LemaréchalM
  • 39M. RobberechtsF
  • 41H. SiquetD
  • 16C. TsawaM
  • 81Argus Vanden DriesscheG
  • 77A. VasovicF
Coach: I. Leko

Form going into Inter vs Club Brugge KV

Inter

UEFA Champions League

  • L1-2away to Real Madrid8 September 2026

Club Brugge KV

UEFA Champions League

  • L2-3Aston Villa8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Inter420286+26
9Club Brugge KV4301117+49

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Leading scorers: Inter and Club Brugge KV

Inter

No player in UEFA Champions League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.

Club Brugge KV

GoalsAssists

  • N. Tresoldi50

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Club Brugge KV won 4–3 at Inter. The model had leaned towards a win for Inter at 51% and given a win for Club Brugge KV 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Nicolo Tresoldi (penalty) 30' for Club Brugge KV, Lautaro Martínez 44' for Inter, Nicolo Tresoldi 63' for Club Brugge KV, Nicolo Tresoldi 74' for Club Brugge KV, Lautaro Martínez 81' for Inter, Romeo Vermant 87' for Club Brugge KV, Ange-Yoan Bonny 90+3' for Inter. On expected goals it finished 4.41–4.34.

How the call on Inter v Club Brugge KV has moved

First published on 29 Sep at 47% / 24% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 51% / 22% / 27%: the biggest move is Inter's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Inter win51%▲ +4
  2. Draw22%▼ −2
  3. Club Brugge KV win27%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.