13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Arsenal vs Lille UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Emirates Stadium, London
Referee: Felix Zwayer
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Arsenal 3-0 Lille.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Arsenal, 25% draw, 17% Lille — fair odds of 1.72, 4.00 and 5.88.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Arsenal at 58%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Arsenal99%Draw1%Lille0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Mikel Merino
29'
⚽Jurriën Timberassist: Noni Madueke
64'
🔁Mikel Merinoout: Martin Odegaard
65'
🔁Viktor Gyökeresout: Kai Havertz
65'
🔁Noni Maduekeout: Bukayo Saka
65'
⚽Eberechi Ezeassist: Bukayo Saka
67'
⚽Bukayo Sakaassist: Kai Havertz
71'
72'
🔁Ngal'ayel Mukauout: Maurits Kjaergaard
72'
🔁Nabil Bentalebout: Osame Sahraoui
78'
🔁Romain Perraudout: Calvin Verdonk
78'
🔁Ayase Uedaout: Olivier Giroud
🔁Jurriën Timberout: Ben White
78'
81'
Maxima Goffi
82'
🔁Dilane Bakwaout: Soriba Diaoune
🔁Eberechi Ezeout: Max Dowman
85'
Kai Havertz
90+2'

Match stats — Arsenal vs Lille

58%Possession42%
16Shots4
8On target0
7Corners0
1.89xG0.4

Goals against chances

Arsenal3 from 1.89 xGmore than the chances were worth
Lille0 from 0.40 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Arsenal 4-2-3-1
  • 1David RayaG
  • 12J. TimberD
  • 15E. KonsaD
  • 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
  • 49M. Lewis-SkellyD
  • 41D. RiceM
  • 39Bruno GuimarãesM
  • 20N. MaduekeM
  • 23Mikel MerinoM
  • 10E. EzeM
  • 14V. GyökeresF
Substitutes
  • 33R. CalafioriD
  • 13KepaG
  • 56M. DowmanF
  • 74M. HashiM
  • 29K. HavertzF
  • 30I. MeslierG
  • 3Cristhian MosqueraD
  • 8M. ØdegaardM
  • 7B. SakaF
Coach: Mikel Arteta
Lille 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. ÖzerG
  • 38M. GoffiD
  • 3N. NgoyD
  • 4Alexsandro RibeiroD
  • 15R. PerraudD
  • 6N. BentalebM
  • 21B. AndréM
  • 7D. BakwaM
  • 17N. MukauM
  • 10H. HaraldssonM
  • 18A. UedaF
Substitutes
  • 24C. VerdonkD
  • 2L. SrdanovicD
  • 50Thomas SajousG
  • 11O. SahraouiF
  • 28G. PerrinF
  • 19B. ÖnalF
  • 23T. NianzouD
  • 14M. KjærgaardM
  • 9O. GiroudF
Coach: Davide Ancelotti

Form going into Arsenal vs Lille

Arsenal

UEFA Champions League

  • W1-0away to Napoli9 September 2026

Lille

UEFA Champions League

  • L2-3Real Betis8 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Arsenal431083+510
35Lille4013410-61

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Arsenal beat Lille 3–0. The model had made a win for Arsenal its most likely outcome, at 58%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Jurriën Timber 64' for Arsenal, Eberechi Eze 67' for Arsenal, Bukayo Saka 71' for Arsenal. On expected goals it finished 1.89–0.40.

How the call on Arsenal v Lille has moved

First published on 29 Sep at 53% / 27% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 58% / 25% / 17%: the biggest move is Arsenal's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Arsenal win58%▲ +5
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Lille win17%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.