13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United UEFA Champions League prediction & result

Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
Referee: Glenn Nyberg
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Manchester United.

Before kick-off the model made it 52% Atletico Madrid, 22% draw, 26% Manchester United — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Madrid at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Madrid99%Draw1%Manchester United0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Pablo Barrios Rivasassist: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
1'
Diego Pablo Simeone
37'
•Johnny Cardoso
45'
52'
Marcus Rashford
🔁Pablo Barrios Rivasout: Marc Pubill
60'
🔁Lee Kang-Inout: Jonathan David
61'
66'
🔁Youri Tielemansout: Joshua Zirkzee
66'
🔁Carlos Balebaout: Mason Mount
66'
🔁Marcus Rashfordout: Amad Diallo
🔁Alejandro Baena Rodríguezout: Ademola Lookman
71'
🔁Julián Álvarezout: Morten Hjulmand
71'
72'
•Leny Yoro
74'
Leny Yoro
⚽Ademola Lookman
79'
80'
🔁Ayden Heavenout: Harry Maguire
80'
🔁Bruno Fernandesout: Matheus Cunha
🔁Giuliano Simeone Baldiniout: Robin Le Normand
88'
Robin Le Normand
88'

Match stats — Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United

58%Possession42%
10Shots9
4On target4
2Corners5
1.54xG1.04

Goals against chances

Atletico Madrid2 from 1.54 xGabout what the chances were worth
Manchester United0 from 1.04 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Madrid 4-4-2
  • 13J. OblakG
  • 14Marcos LlorenteD
  • 21C. RomeroD
  • 17D. HanckoD
  • 22Álex GrimaldoD
  • 20G. SimeoneM
  • 8Pablo BarriosM
  • 5J. CardosoM
  • 10Álex BaenaM
  • 7Lee Kang-InF
  • 19J. ÁlvarezF
Substitutes
  • 46J. CastilloM
  • 15J. DavidF
  • 27J. DominguezD
  • 23M. HjulmandM
  • 24Robin Le NormandD
  • 11A. LookmanF
  • 4Rodrigo MendozaM
  • 1J. MussoG
  • 16Arnau OrtizF
Coach: D. Simeone
Manchester United 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. LammensG
  • 2Diogo DalotD
  • 15L. YoroD
  • 6Lisandro MartínezD
  • 26A. HeavenD
  • 17Andrey SantosM
  • 20C. BalebaM
  • 8Bruno FernandesM
  • 18Y. TielemansM
  • 9M. RashfordM
  • 19B. MbeumoF
Substitutes
  • 57Daniel ArmerD
  • 11J. ZirkzeeF
  • 10Matheus CunhaF
  • 12K. DarlowG
  • 4M. de LigtD
  • 16A. DialloF
  • 39T. FletcherM
  • 31S. LaceyF
  • 5H. MaguireD
Coach: M. Carrick

Form going into Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United

Atletico Madrid

UEFA Champions League

  • L1-2away to Liverpool9 September 2026

Manchester United

UEFA Champions League

  • W4-0Sabah FA10 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

UEFA Champions League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
23Atletico Madrid411245-14
17Manchester United42028806

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United

  • 1 August 2026Manchester United 2–1 Atletico MadridFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 July 2022Atletico Madrid 1–0 Manchester UnitedFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 July 2022Atletico Madrid 1–0 Manchester UnitedFriendlies Clubs
  • 15 March 2022Manchester United 0–1 Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
  • 23 February 2022Atletico Madrid 1–1 Manchester UnitedUEFA Champions League

The full Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United record →

The result against the call

Atletico Madrid beat Manchester United 2–0. The model had made a win for Atletico Madrid its most likely outcome, at 52%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Pablo Barrios Rivas 1' for Atletico Madrid, Ademola Lookman 79' for Atletico Madrid. Sent off: Leny Yoro (Manchester United) 74'. On expected goals it finished 1.54–1.04.

How the call on Atletico Madrid v Manchester United has moved

First published on 29 Sep at 46% / 25% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 52% / 22% / 26%: the biggest move is Atletico Madrid's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Atletico Madrid win52%▲ +6
  2. Draw22%▼ −3
  3. Manchester United win26%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.