22 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Inter vs Monza Serie A prediction & result

Milan
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Inter 4-1 Monza.

Before kick-off the model made it 86% Inter, 9% draw, 5% Monza — fair odds of 1.16, 11.11 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Inter at 86% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Inter99%Draw1%Monza0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽H. Calhanogluassist: A. Diouf
6'
29'
⚽G. Varelaassist: M. Mout
Lautaro Martínez
34'
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
45+1'
⚽P. Zielinski
48'
🔁H. Calhanogluout: P. Sucic
54'
🔁L. Martinezout: A. Bonny
54'
⚽F. Espositoassist: A. Diouf
55'
⚽Y. Bisseckassist: F. Esposito
63'
69'
Eddy Kouadio
70'
🔁M. Moutout: N. Galazzi
70'
🔁A. Colpaniout: O. Forson
70'
🔁A. Bakouneout: P. Cutrone
🔁M. Akanjiout: J. Stones
75'
🔁A. Dioufout: Luis Henrique
75'
🔁P. Zielinskiout: A. Stankovic
83'
83'
🔁G. Varelaout: J. Robinson
84'
Lorenzo Lucchesi
88'
🔁L. Lucchesiout: F. Delli Carri

Match stats — Inter vs Monza

71%Possession29%
13Shots7
5On target3
3Corners3
1.16xG1.09

Goals against chances

Inter4 from 1.16 xGmore than the chances were worth
Monza1 from 1.09 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Inter 3-5-2
  • 1J. MartinezG
  • 31Y. BisseckD
  • 25M. AkanjiD
  • 95A. BastoniD
  • 17A. DioufM
  • 23N. BarellaM
  • 20H. CalhanogluM
  • 7P. ZielinskiM
  • 32F. DimarcoM
  • 94F. EspositoF
  • 10L. MartinezF
Substitutes
  • 49I. ProvedelG
  • 12R. Di GennaroG
  • 46L. BovioD
  • 6J. StonesD
  • 28B. PavardD
  • 5A. StankovicM
  • 8P. SucicM
  • 30Carlos AugustoD
  • 9M. ThuramF
Coach: Cristian Chivu
Monza 3-4-3
  • 13S. PizzignaccoG
  • 60E. KouadioD
  • 3L. LucchesiD
  • 44A. CarboniD
  • 24A. BakouneM
  • 8F. Ondoa
  • 80M. MoutM
  • 19S. BirindelliM
  • 28A. ColpaniF
  • 9G. VarelaF
  • 7R. MangasF
Substitutes
  • 43A. StrajnarG
  • 50A. Ballabio
  • 6V. AntovD
  • 15F. Delli CarriD
  • 23N. GalazziM
  • 11O. ForsonF
  • 46J. RobinsonF
  • 22S. LoubaoF
  • 10P. CutroneF
Coach: Ivan Juric

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Inter4400136+712
18Monza4013611-51

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Inter vs Monza

  • 22 August 2026Inter 4–1 MonzaSerie A
  • 12 August 2025Monza 2–2 InterFriendlies Clubs
  • 8 March 2025Inter 3–2 MonzaSerie A
  • 15 September 2024Monza 1–1 InterSerie A
  • 13 January 2024Monza 1–5 InterSerie A
  • 19 August 2023Inter 2–0 MonzaSerie A

Leading scorers: Inter and Monza

Inter

  • F. Esposito2 goals1 assists
  • M. Thuram2 goals1 assists

Monza

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.