22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Genoa vs Napoli Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Genoa 0-2 Napoli.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Genoa, 24% draw, 50% Napoli — fair odds of 3.85, 4.17 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Napoli at 50% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Genoa0%Draw1%Napoli99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

54'
Matteo Politano
🔁L. Ostigardout: S. Otoa
66'
🔁T. Baldanziout: Junior Messias
66'
66'
🔁Alisson Santosout: N. Lang
67'
🔁F. Anguissaout: K. De Bruyne
67'
🔁M. Politanoout: A. Vergara
🔁L. Colomboout: F. Meichtry
74'
🔁Amorimout: D. Sow
75'
78'
🔁R. Hojlundout: L. Lucca
81'
🔁R. Marinout: M. Olivera
82'
⚽K. De Bruyneassist: A. Vergara
🔁J. Vasquezout: A. Zulevic
87'
87'
⚽A. Vergaraassist: K. De Bruyne

Match stats — Genoa vs Napoli

52%Possession48%
9Shots5
2On target1
4Corners3
0.58xG0.1

Goals against chances

Genoa0 from 0.58 xGless than the chances were worth
Napoli2 from 0.10 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Genoa 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. BijlowG
  • 27A. MarcandalliD
  • 5L. OstigardD
  • 22J. VasquezD
  • 15B. Norton-CuffyM
  • 32M. FrendrupM
  • 4AmorimM
  • 77M. E. EllertssonM
  • 8T. BaldanziF
  • 9VitinhaF
  • 29L. ColomboF
Substitutes
  • 39D. SommarivaG
  • 99F. StolzG
  • 74M. Doucoure
  • 20S. SabelliD
  • 3A. MartinD
  • 2M. MitajD
  • 31D. PuczkaD
  • 34S. OtoaD
  • 97D. SowM
Coach: Daniele De Rossi
Napoli 4-3-3
  • 1A. MeretG
  • 22G. Di LorenzoD
  • 13A. RrahmaniD
  • 16R. MarinD
  • 37L. SpinazzolaD
  • 99F. AnguissaM
  • 68S. LobotkaM
  • 8S. McTominayM
  • 21M. PolitanoF
  • 19R. HojlundF
  • 27Alisson SantosF
Substitutes
  • 32V. Milinkovic-SavicG
  • 14N. ContiniG
  • 17M. OliveraD
  • 31S. BeukemaD
  • 47C. GarofaloD
  • 11K. De BruyneM
  • 26A. VergaraM
  • 6B. GilmourM
  • 2C. FavasuliD
Coach: Massimiliano Allegri

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
19Genoa401328-61
10Napoli420265+16

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Genoa vs Napoli

  • 22 August 2026Genoa 0–2 NapoliSerie A
  • 7 February 2026Genoa 2–3 NapoliSerie A
  • 5 October 2025Napoli 2–1 GenoaSerie A
  • 11 May 2025Napoli 2–2 GenoaSerie A
  • 21 December 2024Genoa 1–2 NapoliSerie A
  • 17 February 2024Napoli 1–1 GenoaSerie A

Leading scorers: Genoa and Napoli

Genoa

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Napoli

  • R. Højlund2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.