22 August 2026, 18:45 UTC

Parma vs Cagliari Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Parma 0-1 Cagliari.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Parma, 24% draw, 39% Cagliari — fair odds of 2.70, 4.17 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cagliari at 39% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1772 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Parma0%Draw5%Cagliari95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

10'
Zé Pedro
57'
Jacopo Fazzini
🔁A. Bernabeout: P. Almqvist
66'
66'
🔁J. Pedroout: G. Zappa
66'
🔁J. Fazziniout: M. Felici
66'
🔁P. Mendyout: G. Borrelli
🔁M. Keitaout: R. Kouda
75'
🔁S. Lontaniout: O. Diallo
75'
79'
⚽A. Romanoassist: M. Adopo
🔁M. Troiloout: B. Cremaschi
85'
🔁A. Konateout: N. Elphege
85'
87'
🔁A. Obertout: G. Aurelio
87'
🔁D. Maldiniout: K. Mutandwa

Match stats — Parma vs Cagliari

49%Possession51%
9Shots9
2On target3
1Corners1
0.76xG0.74

Goals against chances

Parma0 from 0.76 xGless than the chances were worth
Cagliari1 from 0.74 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Parma 4-3-3
  • 40E. CorviG
  • 15E. DelpratoD
  • 37M. TroiloD
  • 3A. NdiayeD
  • 14E. ValeriD
  • 10A. BernabeM
  • 47A. KonateM
  • 32C. OrdonezM
  • 16M. KeitaF
  • 19E. B. ToureF
  • 76S. LontaniF
Substitutes
  • 30G. DaffaraG
  • 75A. MazzocchiG
  • 5L. ValentiD
  • 29F. CarboniD
  • 72D. DrobnicD
  • 11P. AlmqvistF
  • 8B. CremaschiM
  • 24O. SorensenM
  • 80R. KoudaM
Coach: Carlos Cuesta
Cagliari 4-2-3-1
  • 1E. CaprileG
  • 2J. PedroD
  • 14A. DeiolaD
  • 15J. RodriguezD
  • 33A. ObertD
  • 4A. RomanoM
  • 6H. WinksM
  • 8M. AdopoM
  • 70D. MaldiniM
  • 10J. FazziniM
  • 31P. MendyF
Substitutes
  • 23B. RadunovicG
  • 12A. SherriG
  • 26Y. MinaD
  • 28G. ZappaD
  • 24G. AurelioD
  • 21N. CavuotiM
  • 16M. PratiM
  • 32I. SulevM
  • 27J. LitetaM
Coach: Fabio Pisacane

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Parma401326-41
5Cagliari430142+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Parma vs Cagliari

  • 22 August 2026Parma 0–1 CagliariSerie A
  • 27 February 2026Parma 1–1 CagliariSerie A
  • 13 September 2025Cagliari 2–0 ParmaSerie A
  • 9 February 2025Cagliari 2–1 ParmaSerie A
  • 30 September 2024Parma 2–3 CagliariSerie A
  • 3 June 2023Parma 0–0 CagliariSerie B
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.