9 August 2026, 18:15 UTC

Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Chorten Arena, Bialystok
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Jagiellonia 0-2 Widzew Łódź.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Jagiellonia, 25% draw, 33% Widzew Łódź — fair odds of 2.38, 4.00 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Jagiellonia at 42% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Jagiellonia0%Draw1%Widzew Łódź99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

20'
M. Fornalczyk
24'
E. Kornvig
36'
S. Kapuadi
J. Agbonifo
45'
🔁J. Agbonifoout: R. Conceicao
46'
🔁Y. Kobayashiout: A. Konstantopoulos
46'
52'
⚽S. Bergierassist: M. Garcia
54'
⚽F. Alvarez
🔁Y. Syllaout: N. Prelec
58'
A. Konstantopoulos
62'
🔁E. Kozlowskiout: S. Lozano
67'
67'
🔁M. Krajewskiout: J. Gazibegovic
78'
🔁P. Wisniewskiout: M. Zyro
78'
🔁S. Bergierout: L. Selahi
78'
🔁M. Fornalczykout: A. Baena Perez
🔁N. Wojtuszekout: Z. Zalewski
79'
N. Prelec
90+2'
G. Montoia
90+8'
90+3'
🔁M. Garciaout: R. Visus

Match stats — Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź

61%Possession39%
18Shots16
5On target5
8Corners3
1.13xG1.1

Goals against chances

Jagiellonia0 from 1.13 xGless than the chances were worth
Widzew Łódź2 from 1.10 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Jagiellonia 4-3-3
  • 50S. AbramowiczG
  • 15N. WojtuszekD
  • 5B. VitalD
  • 4Y. KobayashiD
  • 23G. MontoiaD
  • 11J. ImazM
  • 85E. KozlowskiM
  • 19A. KlyngeM
  • 10J. AgbonifoF
  • 17Y. SyllaF
  • 7K. SzmytF
Substitutes
  • 1M. PerchelG
  • 27R. ConceicaoD
  • 21S. LozanoM
  • 44A. KonstantopoulosD
  • 2C. PolakD
  • 9D. RallisF
  • 80Z. ZalewskiM
  • 99N. PrelecF
  • 6T. RomanczukM
Coach: Adrian Siemieniec
Widzew Łódź 4-4-2
  • 1B. DragowskiG
  • 91M. KrajewskiD
  • 25P. WisniewskiD
  • 3S. KapuadiD
  • 40M. GarciaD
  • 10F. AlvarezM
  • 6J. ShehuM
  • 8E. KornvigM
  • 7M. FornalczykM
  • 28K. SwiderskiF
  • 99S. BergierF
Substitutes
  • 30V. IlicG
  • 33J. KrzywanskiG
  • 4M. ZyroD
  • 18L. SelahiM
  • 20A. KlukowskiM
  • 70J. GazibegovicD
  • 77A. Baena PerezM
  • 14R. VisusD
  • 57S. AkereM
Coach: Aleksandar Vukovic

Form going into Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź

Jagiellonia

  • W2-1Rangers6 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Motor Lublin31 July 2026
  • W1-0Korona Kielce25 July 2026

Widzew Łódź

  • D0-0away to Wisla Plock31 July 2026
  • D2-2Motor Lublin26 July 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Jagiellonia74031110+112
11Widzew Łódź8152111108

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź

  • 9 August 2026Jagiellonia 0–2 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 31 January 2026Widzew Łódź 1–3 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 27 July 2025Jagiellonia 3–2 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
  • 6 July 2025Widzew Łódź 7–1 JagielloniaFriendlies Clubs
  • 9 March 2025Widzew Łódź 0–1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
  • 1 September 2024Jagiellonia 1–0 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź

Jagiellonia

  • N. Prelec3 goals1 assists

Widzew Łódź

No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.