Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice Ekstraklasa prediction & result
Final score: Lech Poznan 3-0 Piast Gliwice.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Lech Poznan, 27% draw, 33% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lech Poznan at 40% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. LisG
- 2J. PereiraD
- 72M. SkrzypczakD
- 27W. MonkaD
- 15M. GurgulD
- 10P. WalemarkM
- 22R. MurawskiM
- 43A. KozubalM
- 11D. HakansM
- 7Y. AgneroF
- 77L. PalmaF
- 41B. MrozekG
- 31W. ObremskiG
- 9M. IshakF
- 59T. YegbeD
- 56W. Szymczak
- 53K. DelikatM
- 90H. JanyszkaD
- 20R. GumnyD
- 21P. RodriguezM
- 75D. GrilG
- 28F. BorowskiD
- 5JuandeD
- 4J. CzerwinskiD
- 36J. LewickiD
- 90I. LimaM
- 31O. LesniakM
- 27J. LabojkoM
- 80H. VallejoM
- 17Q. BoisgardF
- 19S. NtamackF
- 12M. Mendes-DudzinskiG
- 10A. KatsantonisF
- 99E. TwumasiD
- 77S. MuchaM
- 7J. FelixF
- 98J. LokiloF
- 11L. SancaM
- 3E. FikajD
- 15L. PitanD
Form going into Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice
Lech Poznan
- W1-0KI Klaksvik6 August 2026
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków1 August 2026
- L1-4Aarhus29 July 2026
- D0-0Cracovia Krakow25 July 2026
- W4-1away to Aarhus21 July 2026
Piast Gliwice
- W4-3Wisla Krakow1 August 2026
- L0-2away to Zaglebie Lubin27 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 16 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Lech Poznan vs Piast Gliwice
- 9 August 2026Lech Poznan 3–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 15 February 2026Lech Poznan 3–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 3 February 2026Piast Gliwice 1–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- 3 December 2025Piast Gliwice 0–2 Lech PoznanCup
- 24 May 2025Lech Poznan 1–0 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 29 November 2024Piast Gliwice 0–0 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Lech Poznan and Piast Gliwice
Lech Poznan
- A. Sayyadmanesh4 goals
Piast Gliwice
- Leandro Sanca4 goals1 assists
- Hugo Vallejo3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.