PEC Zwolle vs Ajax Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: PEC Zwolle 0-2 Ajax.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% PEC Zwolle, 22% draw, 47% Ajax — fair odds of 3.23, 4.55 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ajax at 47% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — PEC Zwolle vs Ajax
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Jasper SchendelaarG
- 3Olivier AertssenD
- 28Simon GravesD
- 24Nick ViergeverD
- 2Sherel Constancio FloranusD
- 8Tobias SommerM
- 30Ryan ThomasM
- 11Dylan MbayoM
- 25Thijs OostingM
- 22Ibrahim CissokoM
- 10Koen KostonsF
- 33Damian van der HaarD
- 20Gabriel ReizigerM
- 4Tijs VelthuisD
- 9Elias SørensenF
- 18Odysseus VelanasM
- 16Tom de GraaffG
- 41Duke VerduinG
- 42Dylan RuwardD
- 37Gilles van der WalM
- 1Marc-André Ter StegenG
- 2Lucas RosaD
- 30Aaron BouwmanD
- 15Youri BaasD
- 12Caio HenriqueD
- 18Davy KlaassenM
- 6Youri RegeerM
- 10Oscar GloukhM
- 23Steven BerghuisF
- 9Kasper DolbergF
- 68Abdellah OuazaneF
- 24Jorthy MokioM
- 11Mika GodtsF
- 8Julian BrandtM
- 38Marcos LeonardoF
- 99Tolu ArokodareF
- 26Maarten PaesG
- 22Joeri HeerkensG
- 17Daley BlindD
- 3Anton GaaeiD
Form going into PEC Zwolle vs Ajax
PEC Zwolle
No earlier matches on record this season.
Ajax
- W3-1Shelbourne6 August 2026
- W4-1Vojvodina30 July 2026
- W4-1away to Vojvodina23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
| 4 | Ajax | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: PEC Zwolle vs Ajax
- 9 August 2026PEC Zwolle 0–2 AjaxEredivisie
- 1 March 2026PEC Zwolle 0–0 AjaxEredivisie
- 13 September 2025Ajax 3–1 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 9 March 2025PEC Zwolle 0–1 AjaxEredivisie
- 24 November 2024Ajax 2–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- 5 July 2024Ajax 0–1 PEC ZwolleFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: PEC Zwolle and Ajax
PEC Zwolle
No player in Eredivisie's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Ajax
- J. Brandt3 goals
- D. Klaassen3 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.