Heerenveen vs Twente Eredivisie prediction & result
Final score: Heerenveen 1-0 Twente.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Heerenveen, 22% draw, 45% Twente — fair odds of 3.03, 4.55 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Twente at 45% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heerenveen vs Twente
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22Bernt KlaverboerG
- 15Mats EgbringD
- 4Sam KerstenD
- 3Maas WillemsenD
- 19Vasilios ZagaritisD
- 6Dirk Wanner ProperM
- 20Jacob TrenskowM
- 16Marcus LindayM
- 10Ringo MeerveldM
- 29Lanroy MachineM
- 9Dylan VenteF
- 11Luca OyenF
- 36Nolhan CourtensM
- 28Hristiyan PetrovD
- 17Nikolai Soyset HoplandD
- 23Darling BladiD
- 44Andries NoppertG
- 30Timo SchreuderG
- 41Jimte ScholtenD
- 7Maxence RiveraM
- 1Lars UnnerstallG
- 28Bart van RooijD
- 38Max BrunsD
- 3Robin PröpperD
- 29Aske AdelgaardD
- 6Ramiz ZerroukiM
- 20Thomas Van den BeltM
- 7Marko PjacaM
- 11Daan RotsM
- 27Sondre ØrjasæterM
- 9Wout WeghorstF
- 19Younes TahaF
- 4Mathias KjøløM
- 25Lucas Vennegoor of HesselinkF
- 14Kristian HlynssonM
- 10Sam LammersF
- 22Remko PasveerG
- 16Joël DrommelG
- 43Ruud NijstadD
- 24Krzysztof KurowskiD
Form going into Heerenveen vs Twente
Heerenveen
No earlier matches on record this season.
Twente
- W6-0Dunajska Streda6 August 2026
- D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC30 July 2026
- L1-2Ferencvarosi TC23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heerenveen | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
| 5 | Twente | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heerenveen vs Twente
- 9 August 2026Heerenveen 1–0 TwenteEredivisie
- 7 February 2026Twente 5–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 24 August 2025Heerenveen 1–2 TwenteEredivisie
- 9 February 2025Heerenveen 3–3 TwenteEredivisie
- 17 September 2024Twente 2–0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 3 April 2024Heerenveen 3–3 TwenteEredivisie