8 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Genoa vs AC Milan Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Referee: Davide Massa
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Genoa 1-2 AC Milan.

Before kick-off the model made it 24% Genoa, 29% draw, 47% AC Milan — fair odds of 4.17, 3.45 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AC Milan at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Genoa0%Draw3%AC Milan97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

13'
⚽Alphadjo Cissèassist: Adrien Rabiot
19'
⚽Christian Pulisicassist: Gonçalo Ramos
28'
Sankhoun Diawara
Alessandro Marcandalli
50'
50'
Adrien Rabiot
61'
🔁Alphadjo Cissèout: Omari Hutchinson
62'
🔁Sankhoun Diawaraout: Filippo Terracciano
🔁Junior Messiasout: Tommaso Baldanzi
62'
🔁Alessandro Marcandalliout: Stephan El Shaarawy
62'
🔁Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveiraout: Lorenzo Colombo
74'
76'
Christian Pulisic
79'
🔁Christian Pulisicout: Ardon Jashari
🔁Hamed Junior Traorèout: Djibril Sow
84'
🔁Samuel Wiafeout: Franz-Ethan Meichtry
84'
87'
Mario Gila
87'
🔁Yunus Musahout: Pervis Estupinan
⚽Mikael Ellertssonassist: Tommaso Baldanzi
88'
Kingsley Ehizibue
90+4'

Match stats — Genoa vs AC Milan

38%Possession62%
17Shots6
5On target2
3Corners0
1.22xG0.67

Goals against chances

Genoa1 from 1.22 xGabout what the chances were worth
AC Milan2 from 0.67 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Genoa 3-4-2-1
  • 1J. BijlowG
  • 27A. MarcandalliD
  • 5L. ØstigårdD
  • 22J. VásquezD
  • 3K. EhizibueM
  • 71S. WiafeM
  • 25H. TraorèM
  • 77M. EllertssonM
  • 10Junior MessiasM
  • 9VítinhaM
  • 18M. OsmajićF
Substitutes
  • 2M. MitajD
  • 4Alexsandro AmorimM
  • 8T. BaldanziM
  • 29L. ColomboF
  • 16C. DramehD
  • 92S. El ShaarawyF
  • 17E. HavelF
  • 11E. MeichtryM
  • 34S. OtoaD
Coach: D. De Rossi
AC Milan 3-4-2-1
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 34Mario GilaD
  • 5K. De WinterD
  • 13S. BocoumD
  • 22Diego MoreiraM
  • 14L. ModrićM
  • 12A. RabiotM
  • 80Y. MusahM
  • 11C. PulišićM
  • 70A. CissèM
  • 9Gonçalo RamosF
Substitutes
  • 33D. BartesaghiD
  • 35V. VladimirovD
  • 41L. P. BouyerG
  • 73F. CamardaF
  • 28C. ComottoM
  • 2P. EstupiñánD
  • 20O. HutchinsonF
  • 30A. JashariM
  • 42F. TerraccianoD
Coach: Ruben Amorim

Form going into Genoa vs AC Milan

Genoa

Serie A

  • W2-1away to Lecce1 November 2026
  • W2-0Juventus28 October 2026
  • W1-0Venezia25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to AS Roma17 October 2026

AC Milan

Serie A

  • W3-1Inter31 October 2026
  • L2-4Bologna28 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Udinese25 October 2026
  • W3-2Atalanta18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Genoa won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Genoa scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Genoa had two goals or fewer.
  • AC Milan scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • AC Milan won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AC Milan conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Genoa114161116-513
4AC Milan117312313+1024

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Genoa vs AC Milan

  • 17 May 2026Genoa 1–2 AC MilanSerie A
  • 8 January 2026AC Milan 1–1 GenoaSerie A
  • 5 May 2025Genoa 1–2 AC MilanSerie A
  • 15 December 2024AC Milan 0–0 GenoaSerie A
  • 5 May 2024AC Milan 3–3 GenoaSerie A
  • 7 October 2023Genoa 0–1 AC MilanSerie A

The full Genoa vs AC Milan record →

Leading scorers: Genoa and AC Milan

Genoa

GoalsAssists

  • M. Osmajić41

AC Milan

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rabiot54
  • A. Cissè50
  • Diego Moreira43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AC Milan won 2–1 at Genoa. The model had made a win for AC Milan its most likely outcome, at 47%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Alphadjo Cissè 13' for AC Milan, Christian Pulisic 19' for AC Milan, Mikael Ellertsson 88' for Genoa. On expected goals it finished 1.22–0.67.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Genoa a 4.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 1.9% after a win, 4.2% after a draw, 4.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 4.9%, 0.7 points higher than before the match.

For AC Milan the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 35.8% going in: 39.7% after a win, 33.2% after a draw, 29.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.7%, 3.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Genoa v AC Milan has moved

First published on 25 Oct at 21% / 27% / 52% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 24% / 29% / 47%: the biggest move is AC Milan's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. Genoa win24%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. AC Milan win47%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.