Fiorentina vs Juventus Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Fiorentina 2-2 Juventus.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Fiorentina, 28% draw, 44% Juventus — fair odds of 3.57, 3.57 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Juventus at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fiorentina vs Juventus
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 43David de GeaG
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 33VieryD
- 17João MárioD
- 27C. NdourM
- 42C. Inao OulaïM
- 30Franco MastantuonoM
- 28PoteM
- 25A. NjieM
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 23BetoF
- 21ValdeD
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 2DodôD
- 44N. FagioliM
- 29W. GnontoF
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 6L. RanieriD
- 25G. VicarioG
- 15P. KaluluD
- 3BremerD
- 26J. LucumíD
- 32J. CabalD
- 22W. McKennieM
- 8T. KoopmeinersM
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 13J. BogaM
- 9R. Kolo MuaniF
- 27N. WoltemadeF
- 6L. KellyD
- 24D. RuganiD
- 23C. PinsoglioG
- 4F. GattiD
- 33NetoG
- 17Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićF
- 2Z. ÇelikD
- 29P. SarrM
- 18J. EkhatorF
Form going into Fiorentina vs Juventus
Fiorentina
Serie A
- W4-2away to Sassuolo2 November 2026
- D2-2Atalanta29 October 2026
- L1-2away to Inter25 October 2026
- L1-3Como18 October 2026
Juventus
Serie A
- W2-0Napoli1 November 2026
- L0-2away to Genoa28 October 2026
- W2-0away to Lecce25 October 2026
- L0-3Lazio18 October 2026
What these results say
- Fiorentina scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Fiorentina had three goals or more.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Juventus had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fiorentina | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 9 |
| 7 | Juventus | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fiorentina vs Juventus
- 17 May 2026Juventus 0–2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 22 November 2025Fiorentina 1–1 JuventusSerie A
- 16 March 2025Fiorentina 3–0 JuventusSerie A
- 29 December 2024Juventus 2–2 FiorentinaSerie A
- 7 April 2024Juventus 1–0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 5 November 2023Fiorentina 0–1 JuventusSerie A
Leading scorers: Fiorentina and Juventus
Fiorentina
GoalsAssists
- Mateo Pellegrino40
- Franco Mastantuono40
Juventus
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Fiorentina and Juventus drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Juventus at 44% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mateo Pellegrino 4' for Fiorentina, Nick Woltemade 32' for Juventus, Alieu Njie 54' for Fiorentina, Gleison Bremer 66' for Juventus. On expected goals it finished 2.14–2.46.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Fiorentina a 4.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 2.1% after a win, 3.9% after a draw, 5.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 3.9%.
For Juventus the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 18.9% going in: 22.7% after a win, 17.5% after a draw, 13.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 17.5%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Fiorentina v Juventus has moved
First published on 25 Oct at 27% / 27% / 46% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 28% / 28% / 44%: the biggest move is Juventus's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Fiorentina win28%▲ +1
- Draw28%▲ +1
- Juventus win44%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.